Analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno indicates that geopolitical events, such as the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, are exacerbating risks in the Bitcoin market, with market sentiment significantly low. Below is an analysis of the current situation and the Bitcoin market:

Geopolitical Background and Market Response

Currently, the United States supports Israel's hardline stance against Iran, and the escalation of the Iranian nuclear issue has triggered a rise in global risk aversion. As a result, the price of Bitcoin briefly dropped by about 4%, from $102,800 to $100,360 (as of June 24, 2025). As a risk asset, Bitcoin faces selling pressure in the short term, but its 'digital gold' attribute may attract some safe-haven funds, leading to bidirectional price fluctuations.

Market Indicators and Trends

• Bull-Bear Score Index: Dropped to 40, entering the bear market territory, reflecting insufficient market confidence.

• Contradictory Signals:

• Positive: Bitcoin ETF inflows (such as $1 billion inflow in the first week of June) indicate that institutions still have confidence.

• Negative: Shrinking trading volume (a 15% decrease compared to the previous week on the week of June 24) and reduced on-chain demand (a decrease of 50,000 BTC that week) suggest insufficient market momentum.

• Critical State: Some indicators are at the bull-bear dividing point, and prices may quickly reverse; close observation of subsequent trends is necessary.

Investment Outlook

1. Short-term: Geopolitical uncertainty is increasing market volatility; cautious operations are recommended, focusing on the key support level of $100,000, as breaching it may trigger larger sell-offs.

2. Mid-term: If the bull-bear index remains below 40, the bear market trend may deepen; if it rises above 50, it indicates improved sentiment.

3. Long-term: The fundamentals of Bitcoin remain robust, and the trend of institutional entry has not changed; considering buying on dips is possible, but short-term risks should be monitored.

Conclusion

Amid the tense situation between the US, Israel, and Iran, the Bitcoin market is under the dual influence of risk aversion and selling pressure, making short-term volatility inevitable. The medium- to long-term trend depends on the evolution of geopolitical events and changes in market indicators, and investors should make prudent decisions based on real-time data.