Bitcoin has rebounded nearly $4,000 from an oversold condition, reaching a peak of $102,613. This morning, I suggested participating in the oversold rebound of mainstream coins and indicated that I have gone long on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL. Since June, I have maintained a bearish outlook on the market, and today I accurately pointed out the opportunity for an oversold rebound, showing a very accurate judgment on recent market trends.
BTC
Bitcoin accelerated its decline at a small scale last night, oscillating down for two consecutive days with an average drop of about 5%. It ultimately stopped falling at $98,000 and rebounded strongly, showing a small-scale stop-loss signal, but the larger scale has not yet turned bullish.
A W-bottom is the best right-side trading pattern. This round of correction meets expectations; I previously indicated that if $101,500 is broken, the target is $98,000-$93,666. Today, it rebounded from $98,000 to a maximum of $4,000, and the expected rebound upper limit is $103,100 (starting point and downward trend line). $101,500 can serve as a take-profit point for long positions, $98,000 is suitable for short-term long bets, and $99,900 (W-bottom rebound high) may form short-term support. Tonight, attention can be paid to rebound opportunities.
$98,000 has a large number of support orders; we need to observe the news to determine the subsequent trend. There is a high probability of interest rate cuts in July, which may drive the market to start, and in the short term, the main force may be shaking out positions. Shorting should focus on $102,000-$102,300, while going long should focus on $98,000-$105,000.
ETH
Ethereum holds the $2120 bull-bear dividing line, rebounding a maximum of $150. In the future, if it retraces to $2120, it can still be bought in spot. This round's rebound target is $2300, and the maximum target is $2380 (support-resistance conversion point). Above $2300 is a price gap; if broken, you can go long on the right side with targets of $2380 and $2450, and it is recommended to reduce positions in batches.
MACD is below the zero axis; long positions are counter-trend trades, and positions should be reduced during the rebound to avoid being trapped. Short positions can be attempted at $2380 or $2445 (only short-term). The bearish trend may continue, focusing on $2100 support; if it breaks, a retest of $1900-$1700 may occur.
Altcoin
Recently in the cryptocurrency market, I truly witnessed what is called 'bottom fishing graveyard'! Watching the price plummet and excitedly rushing in to pick up bargains, only to find that the 'bottom' is actually a basement, and beneath the basement is eighteen layers of hell, and below hell is an endless abyss! Don’t believe it? Try buying one and getting trapped, buy two and get trapped in pairs. It's a definite 'temporary joy in bottom fishing, being trapped in a graveyard'.
Recently in the altcoin market, many people rushed in when they saw a 40% drop, only to find that it later dropped another 70%-90%. Those who cut their losses are gritting their teeth in pain, while those who didn't are left holding a hot potato, watching their accounts shrink daily and feeling anxious. Remember, only mainstream coins can barely be talked about in terms of bottom fishing; most altcoins don’t have any bottom. Their only endpoint is—zero! Don’t use your hard-earned money to bet on the 'impossible comeback'; that’s not bottom fishing, that’s just sending heads to the market!
I will temporarily stop trading these altcoins and focus on trading BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP:
Because prolonged declines can easily lead to bottom divergences that trigger rebounds, accompanied by futures flat positions, but the distribution of chips shows that the rebound is difficult to sustain. This is different from the market after the volume drop in April-May, and the rise is concentrated in a few niche or new coins. Therefore, the rebound and short trading of altcoins have shifted to being primarily intraday trades with low cost performance.
CZ hinted in today's post that the market will not rise broadly in the future; only a few truly valuable strong coins can reach new highs. Binance continues to launch new coins, but CZ clearly stated that investors should abandon worthless projects and focus on quality coins.
On-chain analysis:
USDC:
Combining conspiracy groups and stablecoin narratives, the pattern is large and resilient, with continuous capital inflow, suitable for heavy positions. The stablecoin narrative is a long-term Web2 hotspot and should be given special attention.
UPTOP:
Successfully igniting market enthusiasm through Four_meme pre-sale, it is an attention project. After TGE, the first and second tiers may sell off for profits, which could impact the market, which will look for cost-effective entry points in the $20M-$60M market cap range. The specific points depend on the operational confidence of the project team.
The Alpha+ contract model is expected to be the main mode, with limited Alpha shipments, and a market value of about 30M offering good cost performance. The best profit opportunity is to short and sell after the contract goes live.
