📉 Indicators and current trend
Formation of a downward structure: The market shows a pattern of lower lows and highs on technical frames, indicating ongoing selling pressure, especially if the support level at ~2,300 USD is not surpassed.
Short-term technical indicators are weak: RSI near 30–35 indicates a state of overselling, with MACD and Supertrend indicators supporting the downward tendency.
Liquidation of Long Positions: We have recently witnessed a wide liquidation of rising positions starting from levels of ~2,600–2,800 USD, which contributed to a strong drop towards ~2,200 USD.
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⚠️ External catalysts
Geopolitical Crises: Recent tensions in the Middle East (such as the US-Iran escalation) have sown a general state of fear, and their impact has extended to digital markets contributing to a continuous sell-off, especially in alternative currencies against safe havens like Bitcoin.
Momentary market fluctuations: A "flash crash" occurred on June 21 with a rapid drop from ~2,406 to ~2,224 USD, but recovery to ~2,292 USD later is due to increased buying at support levels.
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🔍 Future Outlook – Bullish or Bearish?
The most likely bearish scenario (short-term):
The continuation of the downward pattern may push the price to test support at ~2,230 USD, and if it fails to hold, we may see a drop towards ~2,100–2,000 USD.
The current momentum supports this scenario, unless the price returns above ~2,300–2,330 USD with stability.
Technical bullish scenario (medium-term):
A rebound may start if the price exceeds resistance at ~2,310–2,330 USD with a clear range, which may open the way towards ~2,434–2,483 USD.
Some forecasts indicate the possibility of the price reaching ~2,900–3,000 USD in the medium term, especially if it surpasses resistance at ~2,750–2,900 USD, supported by some patterns like cup-and-handle.
Cooperation and conflict between analyses: Most short-term analyses tend to be cautious with a potential drop in the range of ~2,100–2,200 USD. Meanwhile, medium-term analyses carry a glimmer of hope for a rise upon breaking important resistance levels.
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✅ Summary
Current situation: Definitely not a clear upward trend. There is clear selling pressure and negative technical indicators.
The tipping point: Resistance level at ~2,300–2,330 USD. Staying above it could lead to a recovery, while failure may push the price down towards ~2,100 USD.
For long-term investors: The medium term may see rebound opportunities towards ~2,750–3,000 USD, but one should wait for technical confirmation (breakout/break of those levels).
