🔻 Influencing Factors
1. Geopolitical tensions
The escalating tensions between the United States and Iran led to strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, causing significant liquidity and exit from the market, including the liquidation of $595 million from long positions in cryptocurrencies.
Reactions came quickly: Bitcoin dropped below $103,000 and Ether plummeted to $2,224 before recovering.
2. Increased volatility and liquidity
Price volatility has increased: Increased liquidity and instant releases have raised risks, and according to technical analysis, there is resistance at $100,000 for Bitcoin that should be monitored.
The rapid and sharp decline in Ether reached 8% with trading volume increasing fivefold, before it began to recover towards $2,292.
3. Lack of activity in retail versus institutional accumulation
Network tracking indicators show a noticeable decline in active addresses, suggesting negative psychological fluctuations for small sellers. In contrast, we see active accumulations in large wallets (10–10,000 BTC), reflecting rising confidence from institutions.
Massive fund flows: Outflow of $227 million from Bitcoin and $151 million from Ether, while stablecoins like USDT saw an inflow of $12.4 million.
4. Interconnection of global markets
Sharp declines in global stocks, such as Nasdaq (-2.5%), led to a direct negative impact on Bitcoin and Ether due to investors shifting to a cautious stance.
The deviation of Bitcoin below its 50-day moving average (around $62,500 in the article) indicates a bearish tone in the near term.
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➕ Opportunities and Risks
Point Details
Buying Opportunities Levels of $100,000–$103,000 for Bitcoin, and $2,250–$2,300 for Ether are considered good entry support areas, especially if geopolitical escalation stops.
Risks Escalation of military situations or further declines in stocks may keep the downward momentum ongoing, with prices below $100K for BTC, and below $2,200 for ETH.
Liquidity Despite the rapid extinguishing of the decline, excess liquidity may lead to volatility again in the coming days.
Institutional Outlook Accumulation of large wallets is a sign of long-term confidence and may be a signal for a near-term trend reversal.
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🧭 Quick Recommendation
In the short term (a week or less): Monitor developments in geopolitical tensions and technical indicators, set strict exit points to enhance risk management.
In the medium term (1–3 months): If geopolitical conditions stabilize, continuous institutional accumulation and wasted network activity from retail may pave the way for a positive reversal.
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Summary
The current decline led by Bitcoin and Ether is primarily due to global tensions and temporary liquidity. However, the larger trend for nations and institutions still focuses on a 'buy the dip' pattern. If geopolitical stability is restored, we may see a gradual cumulative recovery.
