Since June 2025, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated repeatedly within a relatively narrow range, showing a consolidation pattern.
• Technical trend characteristics: Currently, Bitcoin prices are fluctuating around the tens of thousands of dollars, but trading volume has not significantly declined, which is a typical characteristic of a 'consolidation zone'. Usually, such trends indicate that the market is waiting for stronger driving signals to make directional choices.
• Relative balance of market bulls and bears: On one hand, factors such as inflows from ETF expectations and stable institutional holdings provide some buying power; on the other hand, some retail investors choose to withdraw and observe due to the lack of market volatility, while the fluctuating attitudes of some countries towards crypto assets and the uncertainty of policies also make some investors cautious. The balance of bullish and bearish forces in the short term leads to price consolidation.
Although Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, long-term bullish sentiment remains strong for several reasons:
• Ongoing impact of ETF expectations: 2025 is a key node in the development of Bitcoin ETFs. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs at the beginning of the year has brought hundreds of billions of dollars in inflows, and a new wave of ETF applications, including those for Solana, Ripple, and Ethereum staking versions, keeps market expectations in a 'favorable' state. ETFs have established a structured long-term channel for Bitcoin, meeting the demand for compliant products from institutional investors, especially pension funds and sovereign funds, allowing Bitcoin to transition from a 'high-volatility asset' to a 'structural allocation option', thus supporting long-term value enhancement.
• Continued positioning by institutional investors: Recently, Bitcoin positions in institutional accounts have remained stable or even slightly increased at high levels. On-chain data analysis also shows an increase in 'low-frequency large transactions', indicating that inactive addresses or over-the-counter accounts are quietly building or adjusting positions. This suggests that the dominant force in the Bitcoin market is increasingly shifting towards institutions and medium to long-term capital, and the continued positioning by institutions enhances market confidence in its long-term value.
• Support from the macro environment: The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle may be nearing its end, with several inflation data points trending down in the second quarter of 2025. Market expectations for rate cuts in September or December are continuously rising, and lower interest rates generally boost risk assets, including Bitcoin. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainties persist, and some traditional markets have entered overvalued territory, prompting capital to seek hedging and alternative asset allocations, making Bitcoin a focal point once again. Additionally, the temporary abundance of dollar liquidity also benefits non-sovereign assets, including digital assets.