Analysis of the cryptocurrency market entering a seasonal lull and BTC's short-term implied volatility falling below 40%:

Cryptocurrency Market Seasonal Lull

• Changes in Investor Behavior: Summer is usually a low season for traditional financial markets, and investors may spend more time and money on vacations, consumption, or adjusting their portfolios, reducing their attention and trading in the cryptocurrency market.

• Macroeconomic Factors: The current global macroeconomic situation is uncertain, such as the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance due to high inflation expectations, and tariffs being seen as an upward risk; several tariff exemptions may expire from July to August, potentially causing phase fluctuations in risk assets, making investors more cautious about high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

BTC's Short-term Implied Volatility Falls Below 40%

• Cautious Market Sentiment: The premium for put options reflects a strong cautious sentiment in the market, with investors preferring to hold their coins and wait in the face of increasing uncertainty rather than engage in frequent trading, which has led to a decrease in market activity and a subsequent drop in volatility.

• Stable Macroeconomic Policy Expectations: If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates as expected, the short-term uncertainty regarding macroeconomic policy decreases, reducing expectations of policy shocks to the cryptocurrency market, which in turn diminishes price volatility.

• Lack of Major Industry Event Drivers: Recently, there have been no significant technological breakthroughs, regulatory policy changes, or major project advancements in the cryptocurrency market that could trigger substantial market fluctuations, resulting in relatively stable BTC prices and a decrease in implied volatility. #加密市场回调 $BTC