"Bull markets often see sharp declines, bear markets often see rebounds—ETH's violent rebound after probing down to 2108 today resembles the tactics used by major players, but the smart money has already focused on this critical watershed!"
Technical aspects: Bollinger Bands narrowing + negative golden cross, the main players are playing psychological warfare.
From the 1-hour chart, ETH staged a 'deep V scenario' today:
Bollinger Bands trumpet mouth narrowing: Upper band at 2861, lower band at 2733, mid band at 2797, prices are compressed within a range of less than 200 dollars. Such narrow fluctuations often represent a 'suffocation moment' before a big trend—either a breakout or a spike.
MACD negative golden cross: Although DIF (5.69) crossed above DEA (15.42), the MACD bar is still at -19.46 (marked as 'oversold'), indicating that the rebound is 'fake fat.' Historically, this kind of negative golden cross has a 70% probability of a second retest (like the false pump that led to an 8% drop in early June).
Watershed 2578: The 38.2% Fibonacci level is the line of life and death, today it dipped to 2108 but quickly rebounded, indicating institutions are testing liquidity.
Anna's blood and tears experience:
Remember the drop below 2600 in May, which led to a liquidation of 240 million dollars within half an hour? Today follows the same routine—first breaking support to trigger leveraged liquidations, then reversing to absorb blood-soaked chips.
Two news fronts: ETF delay + whale movements, has the bearish news been fully priced in?
Latest news (June 25):
SEC throws cold water again: Bloomberg reports that the ETH spot ETF might be delayed until the end of July, later than the market's expectation of June (bullish turns bearish).
Whale moving bricks: On-chain monitoring detected an address transferring 32,000 ETH to Binance two hours ago, worth about 90 million dollars (preparation for dumping).
Macroeconomic drag: Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated, 'No rate cuts may happen throughout the year,' leading to a decline in US tech stocks, with ETH following the downward trend.
But the reversal signal has appeared:
Derivatives data: ETH perpetual funding rate turns negative (-0.005%), indicating excessive short positions, which may trigger a short squeeze.
Exchange inventory: Coinbase's ETH reserves decreased by 12% this week, suspected of being withdrawn for staking (a long-term bullish signal).
Three, Anna's operational strategy: Focus on these two key points.
1. Short-term (tonight to tomorrow morning):
Bottom buying conditions: Stabilize above 2797 (mid track) + volume breakout at 2861, target 2900-3000.
Escape signal: If it breaks below 2733 and does not recover within an hour, decisively stop loss and wait for 2578 to re-enter.
2. Medium-term (July ETF window period):
Spot traders: Place orders in batches below 2700, increase positions every 50 drop, stop loss at 2580.
Contract traders: After breaking 2900, go long if it retraces without breaking 2850, stop loss at 2800, target 3200.
Blood and tears lesson:
Don't be fooled by long lower shadows! After the spike on June 12, ETH declined for another 7 days. This time, we must see three consecutive 4-hour bullish candles to confirm a reversal.$ETH #Strategy增持比特币
"The market always repeats history, but it won't simply replicate it—after this round of washing out, will ETH see a 40% surge from 1600 to 2100 like in October 2023, or will it replicate the LUNA-style crash of 2022? Follow Anna for a live breakdown of the main wallet addresses at 8 PM tonight, helping you predict the direction of change 24 hours in advance!"