📈 Inflation Alert: Double Shock Looms Over U.S. Economy đŸ”„

Bloomberg Economics sounds the alarm: a summer with 4% CPI is now on the table. Two key threats are converging:

🚹 1. Time Bomb of Tariffs

‱ Imminent end of Trump’s tariff suspensions

‱ Risk of return of taxes on over $300 billion

‱ Possible rekindled trade tensions

đŸ›ąïž 2. Oil Shock in the Middle East

‱ Increasing conflicts → Oil at $130+ (vs ~85$)

‱ +$100 billion of oil = +0.4% on the price index

‱ Summer season: amplified effect on gasoline

🎯 Expected:

‱ Inflation towards 4% by August (vs 3.3%)

‱ 📆 Fed forced to delay rate cuts

📊 Markets already in motion:

‱ Energy stocks rising

‱ Bond yields climbing

‱ Markets no longer anticipate more than 1.25 rate cut in 2024

🔍 To watch: The dilemma for policymakers:

đŸ‡ș🇾 Manage inflation, avoid recession
 in an election year.

#Inflation #OilPriceSurge #Tariffs #FederalReserveSecurity #MarketOutlook