Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas raised the probability of approval for the spot XRP-ETF in the U.S. to 95% by the end of 2025. This forecast, published on June 22, 2025, reflects the active interaction of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) with issuers, particularly Franklin Templeton and 21Shares, which submitted updated S-1 applications. Previously, the odds were estimated below 90%, but progress in regulatory discussions changed the estimates.
The SEC requested public comments regarding applications for the XRP-ETF, which experts consider a positive signal. The launch of futures on $XRP May 19, 2025, also strengthened the arguments for approval, demonstrating market maturity. On Polymarket, the probability of XRP-ETF approval reached 98%, reflecting investor optimism.
The price of XRP on June 23 is $1.9, but analysts predict growth due to institutional interest. Approval of the ETF could attract billions of dollars, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, a final decision from the SEC is not expected before October.
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