🌍 Crypto as a Geopolitical Tool
🇮🇷 Iran: Circumventing Sanctions
Iranians have increasingly turned to crypto due to economic instability, soaring inflation (40–50%), and a plummeting rial. In 2024, crypto outflows surged to about $4.18 billion, up ~70% year‑on‑year .
Authorities tightly control the space: rial-to-crypto trades were blocked in Dec 2024, then partially reopened in Jan 2025 via gated APIs, allowing government oversight of user data .
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly uses crypto for sanction evasion and funding covert activities .
⚔️ Israel–Iran Cyberwar
Israel-linked hackers, notably the group Predatory Sparrow (Gonjeshke Darande), launched major cyberattacks targeting Iran’s crypto infrastructure, including Nobitex, the nation’s top exchange. Over $90 million in assets—likely including Bitcoin and Ethereum—were stolen and “burned” as a political statement .
The attack also hit Bank Sepah, causing financial disruptions .
✈️ Military Escalation & Internet Control
In mid‑June 2025, Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities. Consequently, oil prices spiked ~11% and Bitcoin dropped from ≈ $109K to ~$103K .
Iran responded by enforcing a near total internet blackout (~97% usage drop) to stifle external information, effectively isolating citizens from crypto and financial systems .
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📉 Market Reactions & Crypto Volatility
Bitcoin saw rapid swings: dipping to ~$98K post‑U.S. strikes before recovering to ~$101K, trading within a descending technical channel ($100K support, $107K resistance) .
In broader conflict phases (e.g., Apr 2024 Iran‑Israel flare‑ups), major cryptos like BTC, ETH, SOL dropped 4–6%, liquidations reached hundreds of millions, yet markets rebounded soon after .
