🌍 1. The Strait of Hormuz is the lifeline of global oil supply —

  • The Strait of Hormuz is the most important oil transportation route in the world.

  • About 1/5 of the world's crude oil (15 million barrels per day) passes through here every day.

  • Almost all crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar must pass through it.

⚠️ 2. If Iran closes the Strait (or harasses oil tankers):

  1. Crude oil prices will surge in the short term.

  2. Market expectations of limited supply will drive prices up sharply (possibly heading towards $100 or higher).

  3. Shipping and insurance costs will soar significantly.

  4. Increased risk for ships → Freight + war insurance premiums rise → Chain reaction in prices.

  5. Countries dependent on energy imports will be impacted.

  6. Japan, South Korea, Europe, and others are highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, leading to increased manufacturing costs.

    3. What economic consequences will this lead to?


    This is a typical case of 'imported inflation' + heightened stagflation risk.

    At the very least, there's no hope for interest rate cuts! 😥

    So, the consequences are quite chilling to think about!

    In summary, if the Strait of Hormuz is truly closed, it will trigger a 'stagflation shock wave caused by geopolitical conflict', reigniting global inflation driven by rising oil prices, pressuring the stock market, and gold and Bitcoin may benefit from safe-haven demand, but short-term volatility must be closely monitored.