On the evening of June 22, Kousari, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee, stated that the Parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Once this news was announced, BTC fell from 102,810 USD all the way down to 98,200 USD, having now rebounded to around 100,800 USD. ETH also fell to 2,111 USD, marking a fourth consecutive daily decline. SOL dropped to 126 USD, with a 24-hour decline of 3.45%, while other altcoins broadly fell.
In contract data, according to coinglass data, the total open contracts across the network faced liquidations of 658 million USD in 24 hours, with long positions liquidated for 526 million USD. The largest single liquidation occurred in HTX - BTC-USDT, valued at 35.4503 million USD.
The market is undergoing drastic changes, BTC briefly fell below 100,000 USD, will Iran really close the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz is located between Oman and Iran, connecting the eastern Oman Gulf and the western Persian Gulf. It is the only maritime route for oil from the Gulf region to the rest of the world, with about one-third of global maritime crude oil trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran controls a large number of highlands, caves, and key islands on the western shore of the Strait, such as Hormuz Island, Fars Island, and Larak Island. Once a blockade is ordered, a "layered fire blockade network" can be immediately established.
Historically, Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz multiple times but has never actually implemented it. For instance, during the Iran-Iraq War in the 20th century, although Iran threatened to block it, it ultimately did not fully carry it out. In recent years, after the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions against Iran, similar threats have been issued multiple times by Iran.
Iran's economy is heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for exporting energy. If the strait is closed, Iran's economy will suffer heavy losses, making life even more difficult for its citizens, potentially accelerating the legitimacy crisis of the regime. Moreover, blocking the strait will severely worsen Iran's foreign relations, isolating it further in the international community.
Dr. Liu Qiang, Vice Chairman of the Shanghai Ring-Pacific International Strategic Research Center and Director of the Academic Committee, stated, "If Iran is rational, it is highly likely that they will not decide to block the strait. Blocking the strait would be more harmful than beneficial for Iran, and the international community is currently inclined to sympathize with Iran. Once a blockade is implemented, it will only provoke opposition from various countries and reverse the international opinion in favor of Iran."
U.S. Vice President Vance stated, "Iran's attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz will have a self-destructive effect on their economy. In his view, it is unlikely that Iran will decide to do so."
Trump stated on his social platform Truth in the early morning of June 23, "Using the term 'regime change' is politically inappropriate, but if the current Iranian regime cannot make Iran great again, why can't a regime change happen? MIGA"
What choice Iran will ultimately make is being closely watched by the market.
The crypto circle is in a state of lament, is the bull market in the crypto market still there? Is it the right time to buy the dip now?
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel last night at 10 PM, stating, "I have quite actively opened long positions here, including Bitcoin and some altcoins. I believe that earlier U.S. bombing actions, combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are a continuous blow to early bulls, which is enough to wash them out. Now is the time to 'buy the dip.' If the market directly gaps down to 95,000 USD, then I can only say 'good night,' but this is the last battle for the bulls, and I am already positioned."
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin demand is showing signs of cooling after a period of accelerated growth, with prices approaching 112,000 USD. Spot demand is still increasing, but the growth rate has slowed and is currently below historical trends. The purchasing volume of Bitcoin by whales and ETFs has halved. Demand from new investors is also declining. In the futures market, investors have recently chosen to take profits and begin building new short positions.
If demand continues to weaken, Bitcoin may find support near 92,000 USD, which corresponds to the on-chain actual cost price for traders, a typical support area during a bull market. If this support fails, the next support level may be at 81,000 USD, close to the lower bound of the actual cost price for traders on-chain.
On-chain data analyst Murphy tweeted that although the ETH price has pulled back nearly 20% from its highs, he still does not believe this is the best buying opportunity. The profit supply percentage data indicates that it is still at 55%, meaning that even at the current price, 55% of circulating tokens are in profit. Historically, a more cost-effective buying opportunity arises only when a large proportion of circulating tokens are in a loss position.
Mike Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital, tweeted that the next 72 hours are crucial, but if Iran does not truly retaliate, the market will significantly rise by this weekend.
