The U.S.-Iran nuclear tensions have escalated again, with the U.S. directly striking Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to widespread turmoil in the global financial markets. Bitcoin (BTC) was once under pressure and dropped below $98,286, but quickly rebounded to above $100,000. Although short-term fluctuations seem tense, many voices within the industry still view Bitcoin's long-term safe-haven properties positively.
First, geopolitical escalation: from nuclear threats to potential regime change.
On June 22, U.S. President Trump clearly stated that the U.S. would destroy Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities and claimed that key Iranian facilities had been 'cleared.' Vice President Pence also stated that the U.S. is not 'waging war' against Iran, but is taking action against its nuclear program. The next day, Trump ambiguously mentioned the highly sensitive concept of 'regime change' on social media, raising concerns about the direction of the conflict.
This series of statements shows that the U.S. is not only taking substantive military action but is also gradually strengthening its stance of 'hardline restraint against Iran' in public opinion, causing market risk aversion sentiments to rise rapidly.
Second, market chain reactions: Bitcoin is under short-term pressure, but has not broken through structural support.
Due to the conflict, BTC once dropped to $98,286, then quickly rebounded and consolidated above $100,000. Overall, Bitcoin remains in a high volatility range in the short term, with macro risks influencing its short-term trend.
Currently, the market is generally focused on three key variables: first, whether Iran will carry out a military counterattack in the coming days; second, whether international oil prices will continue to rise; third, whether the Federal Reserve will adjust its policy path due to the global situation.
Third, industry viewpoints are divided, but the mainstream voice still sees Bitcoin's safe-haven status positively.
Although some analysts point out that Bitcoin still has strong 'risk asset characteristics' and does not possess immediate safe-haven functionality at the outbreak of geopolitical events, mainstream institutions and industry leaders still hold a positive outlook on its long-term safe-haven value.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes: 'This is the prelude to a central bank printing cycle, and Bitcoin will ultimately benefit in such a cycle.' Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz also believes that if Iran does not carry out substantial retaliation, this round of geopolitical events will be quickly digested by the market, and Bitcoin will regain upward momentum. He particularly emphasizes that each adjustment of Bitcoin at this stage is an accumulation of chips for future rallies.
Fourth, continuous inflow of ETF funds, and institutional bullish expectations remain unchanged.
From the perspective of capital flow, Bitcoin's spot ETF products have continued to show inflows during recent geopolitical conflicts. In just the past week, the total net inflow into ETFs was nearly $390 million, with products under BlackRock and Fidelity still demonstrating strong capital attraction.
The continuous capital inflow into ETFs not only reflects institutions' recognition of Bitcoin's fundamentals but also indicates that it is gradually being incorporated into asset allocation logic under the backdrop of global uncertainty.
In addition, Ethereum ETF funds have also recorded continuous positive inflows, indicating that overall confidence in the cryptocurrency market is still in the process of recovery.
Fifth, the realistic logic of Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes: not a substitute for gold, but a complement to the global asset structure.
In traditional understanding, gold is the standard asset for a 'safe haven,' while Bitcoin, due to its high volatility and significant policy influence, once struggled to attain this status. However, in recent years, especially with the institutionalization of ETFs and the gradual institutionalization of holders, Bitcoin is transitioning from a 'speculative asset' to a 'structural safe-haven asset.'
Compared to gold, Bitcoin has advantages such as strong cross-border liquidity, transparent supply limits, and open technical standards. Especially during periods of global monetary easing or expectations of credit deterioration, its price typically exhibits relative anti-inflation characteristics.
Sixth, key points for future observation.
In the short term, the market still needs to focus on the following three points:
Whether the geopolitical situation will continue to escalate, especially whether it will trigger regional wars or energy shocks;
Whether the Federal Reserve will issue easing signals in the upcoming interest rate meeting;
Can Bitcoin maintain its mid-term structural support range above $100,000?
If the above variables do not worsen, Bitcoin is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward structural trend. Conversely, if the situation changes suddenly, the possibility of testing below 98,000 again cannot be ruled out.
