Author: Daren Matsuoka, Partner at a16z Investment Team; Translation: Jinse Finance Xiaozou
The development of the crypto industry is becoming increasingly mature. At the end of last year, we proposed 5 indicators to closely monitor for 2025, to track the ongoing growth and development of the industry, which are:
Monthly active mobile wallet users, adjusted stablecoin trading volume, net inflows of ETP funds, ratio of DEX to CEX spot trading volume, total transaction fees (block space demand)
The following is the data situation and importance analysis for the first half of this year.
1. Monthly active mobile wallet users: +23%
2025: Average monthly active mobile wallet users are 34.4 million;
2024: Average monthly active mobile wallet users are 27.9 million.
Importance explanation:
Wallet infrastructure has significantly improved—we now have low transaction fees, new account abstraction protocols (EIP-7702), embedded wallet products (Privy, Turnkey, Dynamic), etc. Now is the best time to build the next generation of mobile wallets.
Related news:
This month, Stripe acquired leading wallet infrastructure provider Privy.
2. Adjusted stablecoin trading volume: +49%
2025: Adjusted stablecoin trading volume averages $702 billion per month;
2024: Adjusted stablecoin trading volume averages $472 billion per month.
Importance explanation:
Stablecoins have achieved product-market fit. Today, we can complete USD transfers in less than 1 second and at a cost of less than 1 cent—making stablecoins an ideal choice for payments. Major financial institutions are actively seizing this opportunity.
Related news:
USDC issuer Circle lists on the New York Stock Exchange;
Stripe acquires stablecoin infrastructure provider Bridge and announces several new products;
Coinbase announces the launch of a smart payment standard supporting stablecoin payments;
Visa and Mastercard enhance stablecoin support features;
Reports indicate that Meta is in talks to introduce stablecoins as a payment settlement method.
3. Net inflow of ETP funds (Bitcoin and Ethereum): +28%
June 2025: Total net inflow of ETP funds is $45 billion (Bitcoin $42 billion, Ethereum $3.4 billion);
By the end of 2024: Total net inflow of ETP funds is $35 billion (Bitcoin $33 billion, Ethereum $2.4 billion).
Importance explanation:
Institutional funds entering the cryptocurrency space marks the overall maturity of the industry. As regulatory policies become clearer and major distribution channels start to ramp up, net inflows into ETP products are expected to continue to grow.
Related news:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently requested the issuer of spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to update their S-1 filing, suggesting possible approval of the product soon.
4. Ratio of DEX to CEX spot trading volume: +51%
2025 average: DEX/CEX monthly trading volume ratio reaches 17%;
2024 average: DEX/CEX monthly trading volume ratio reaches 11%.
Importance explanation:
With the continuous growth of on-chain users, we expect the usage rate of decentralized exchanges (DEX) relative to centralized exchanges (CEX) in the cryptocurrency trading space to continue to rise. This ongoing increase highlights the overall development of the DeFi ecosystem.
Related news:
Coinbase recently announced the launch of native DEX trading features in its app, allowing users to trade thousands of new assets directly.
5. Total transaction fees (block space demand): -43%
2025 average: $239 million in monthly transaction fees;
2024 average: $439 million in monthly transaction fees.
Importance explanation:
The total transaction fees in USD reflect the overall demand for on-chain block space—i.e., real economic value.
However, this indicator has many subtle differences, as most projects are explicitly trying to lower user fees. This is why it is also important to consider unit transaction costs—i.e., the cost of using a specific amount of blockchain resources. The ideal situation is for total demand (total transaction fees) to grow while gas fees (cost per unit of resource usage) remain at a low level.
Related news:
Recently, we have seen a lot of discussions on the X platform about the importance of this indicator (and related indicators like REV).
Another additional indicator I would watch is: the number of tokens with a monthly net income exceeding $1 million. As of June 2025, there are only 22 (data source: Token Terminal).
With the new regulatory environment and upcoming market structure legislation, tokens will eventually open a path to economic circulation. This will encourage more projects to directly increase token value in the form of revenue, thus building a healthier token economy.
