BTC Technical Analysis:
1. Weekly Situation: This week, BTC's weekly candle closed as a medium-sized bearish candle. However, have you noticed that although the price dropped, the trading volume did not significantly increase, and there was no panic selling situation where everyone was frantically dumping? Looking at the KD indicator on the weekly chart, it has pulled back from a high position, which is consistent with normal technical trends.
2. Daily Situation: On the daily chart, after the price dropped, it formed a candlestick with a long lower shadow, with the low point nearly reaching the Fibonacci 0.382 level. The key for the short term now lies in the battle at the neckline of the M top.
- If this neckline can be held, the price is likely to find a bottom in the short term and then return to the previous high volatility range.
- If it cannot be held, according to the M top 1:1 space measurement method, the bears may push the price down to a lower target.
3. 4-Hour Chart Situation: On the 4-hour chart, BTC's trend has formed a descending channel.
- Channel 1: The middle track of the channel, the area of concentrated chips, the EMA moving average, and the rising trend line have undergone a swap of support and resistance, collectively forming a resonance resistance level, approximately at 104000.
- Channel 2: Its upper track coincides with the resonance resistance position of Channel 1, while the lower track corresponds to the long-term EMA moving average and the lower track of Channel 1, with the middle track related to the previously appeared bearish candle.
4. Wave Pattern Situation: From the wave pattern perspective, it is currently in the C wave stage. Generally, the decline in the C wave will be greater than that in the A wave, so we need to pay special attention to the situation when the C wave drops to the vicinity of the Fibonacci 0.5 - 0.618 key support levels.
Additionally, it is important to remind everyone that during this time, special attention should be paid to geopolitical news and the risks that may arise after the expiration of reciprocal tariffs, as these could impact the BTC price.
