As the US intervenes to strike Iran, the situation in the Middle East escalates. Iran vows to make those who carry out bombing actions bear 'eternal consequences' and states that it reserves all options to defend its sovereignty.
Yesterday, Bitcoin fell below $100,000 per coin, declining 2.18% in a day, while Ethereum dropped 9.84%. Currently, the overall trend is dominated by bears, and the upcoming data and changes in the macroeconomic situation pose a risk of a sharp decline in the crypto market.
Key news:
1. According to Deep Tide TechFlow, on June 22, market news indicated that the Iranian parliament has approved a proposal to close the Strait of Hormuz. However, this measure still requires the final decision of the highest security authority.
2. According to Deep Tide TechFlow, analysts at Bloomberg Economics stated that President Trump's suspension of reciprocal tariffs is about to expire, and geopolitical risks are rising, intertwining with the potential escalation of tariffs.
On June 21, during US-EU trade negotiations, the US demanded unilateral concessions from the EU. EU officials believe these demands are unbalanced and may violate WTO rules. The US's request for unbalanced trade concessions from the EU could provoke a countermeasure from the EU. Tariff negotiations remain imminent, and the tariff suspension in July may just be a 'delay tactic.'
3. According to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 84.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 15.5%.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller: There may be a possibility of cutting interest rates as early as the July meeting.
Federal Reserve's Barkin: Current data shows no urgent reason to cut interest rates.
Federal Reserve's Daly: The economic fundamentals are moving towards a direction that may require an interest rate cut.
Federal Reserve officials have differing opinions, and there is no conclusion yet on a rate cut in July.
4. According to ChainCatcher, James Wynn tweeted that the short-term price target range for Bitcoin is between $93,000 and $95,000.
The global geopolitical situation is tense, and other countries may join the conflict, which could further drive down Bitcoin prices. Even without the war, the US has not cut interest rates. The only 'favorable' factor is the global M2 money supply, but that does not come from...
From the US dollar.
5. Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Bank, stated that in the short term, the market may be worried about Iran's retaliatory actions and whether Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz. These concerns, along with the US's intervention in the Middle East conflict, could lead to further declines in the market.
6. The US disclosed details of the operation against Iran's nuclear facilities: using B-2 bombers and 14 giant bunker-busting bombs. The geopolitical aspect mainly depends on the intensity of Iran's retaliation. How long Iran can endure and the extent of subsequent retaliation need to be observed further. Currently, Iran is attempting to negotiate with Russia; let's wait and see how things progress.
Let's talk about the Strait of Hormuz first. If it is really closed, a global economic crisis will follow, and the crypto market will be severely impacted. However, this major event is currently only showing signs in that direction, and whether it can be allowed later is still uncertain.
Yumi mentioned in a previous post that this measure is very difficult; pulling one thread affects the whole body. After all, this strait carries too many countries' interests. If it is closed, it will offend more than one or two countries. Therefore, this matter is not that simple. Yumi believes that currently, the news front has only deteriorated a bit. Iran has released a smokescreen and shown a trump card to deter the US. The probability of actually closing it is low.
The Fed's interest rate cut is also causing a lot of turmoil, with officials divided in opinion and Powell's wait-and-see attitude continuing. The progress of tariff negotiations is not good, and the deadline for the upcoming tariff suspension in July is approaching. Whether it will continue to be postponed remains uncertain, depending on how Trump operates. Furthermore, Trump is always looking for issues on social media and making chaotic statements. Other countries are also watching closely.
The preview of important macro events in the US for the coming week is as follows:
On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak on monetary policy and the banking industry.
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified on the semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee.
On Wednesday, FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams will speak; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee.
On Thursday, the number of initial unemployment claims in the US for the week ending June 21 (in ten thousand), previous value 24.5.
On Friday, the year-on-year core PCE price index for May in the US is expected to be 2.60%, previous value 2.50%.
Final value of the US Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for June, previous value 60.5.
This week will be a turbulent one, with escalating geopolitical tensions, differing opinions among Federal Reserve officials, and ongoing tariff negotiations. All three news fronts have not shown signs of improvement, bringing considerable shock to the already chaotic market. Bitcoin has broken through the strong support at 100,000, dropping to 98,133, while Ethereum has continuously plummeted to around 2,108. Last week's 110,000 is already in the past, and if subsequent news remains unfavorable, the market may decline further, so pay attention to the strong support levels of 95,000/2,000.
Today's focus:
To be determined, the US will impose tariffs on various steel appliances, with a set rate of 50%.
At 21:00, ECB President Lagarde will make an introductory speech at the hearing held by the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.
At 21:45, the US will release the preliminary value of the June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, with market expectations of 51.2, previous value 52.
At the same time, the US will release the preliminary value of the June S&P Global Services PMI, with market expectations of 53, previous value 53.7.
At 22:00, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak on monetary policy and the banking industry.
At 01:10 the next day, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in the Q&A session of the 2025 Mid-Year Outlook meeting hosted by Milwaukee Business Magazine.
At 02:30 the next day, Federal Reserve Governor Koller and FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams will host the 'Fed Listens' event.
