Original title: (Iran becomes a detonator in the financial market; can Bitcoin hold the $100,000 mark?)
Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On the evening of June 22, Iranian Parliament National Security Committee member Kousari stated that the parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council. As soon as the news was announced, BTC slid from $102,810 and eventually broke below $100,000, dipping to $98,200, and has now rebounded to around $100,800. ETH dropped to $2,111 at one point, marking a four-day consecutive decline. SOL fell to $126, with a 24-hour drop of 3.45%, and other altcoins also saw declines.
In terms of contract data, according to coinglass data, the total unrealized futures contracts across the network faced liquidations of $658 million in the past 24 hours, with long positions liquidating $526 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on HTX - BTC-USDT worth $35.4503 million.
The market is experiencing drastic changes, with BTC temporarily dipping below $100,000. Will Iran really shut down the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz is located between Oman and Iran, connecting the eastern Oman Gulf and the western Persian Gulf. It is the only maritime route for oil from the Gulf region to the rest of the world, with approximately one-third of global maritime crude oil trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran controls a large number of highlands, caves, and key islands on the western shore of the Strait, such as Hormuz Island, Fars Island, and Qeshm Island. Once a blockade is ordered, a 'layered fire blockade network' can be established immediately.
Historically, Iran has threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz multiple times but has never truly followed through. For example, during the Iran-Iraq War in the 20th century, Iran threatened to blockade but ultimately did not carry it out. In recent years, after the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions on Iran, similar threats have been issued multiple times.
Iran's economy heavily relies on energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz. If the Strait is closed, Iran's economy will suffer a severe blow, making life more difficult for its citizens and potentially accelerating the legitimacy crisis of the regime. Additionally, closing the Strait will severely worsen Iran's foreign relations, isolating it further in the international community.
Dr. Liu Qiang, Vice Chairman and Director of the Academic Committee of the Shanghai Huan Tai International Strategic Research Center, stated, "If Iran is rational, it will most likely not decide to blockade the Strait. The blockade would bring more harm than good to Iran. The international community tends to sympathize with Iran, and once a blockade is implemented, it would only provoke opposition from various countries and reverse the international narrative in its favor."
U.S. Vice President Vance stated, "Iran's attempt to blockade the Strait of Hormuz would have a suicidal effect on their economy. In his view, Iran is unlikely to decide to do this."
Trump stated on his social platform Truth in the early hours of June 23 that, "Using the term 'regime change' politically is inappropriate, but if the current Iranian regime cannot make Iran great again, why can't there be a regime change? MIGA"
What choice Iran will make is eagerly awaited by the market.
There is a wailing sound in the crypto community; is the bull market in the crypto market still ongoing? Is it the right time to bottom-fish now?
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel at 10 PM last night, stating, "I am quite actively opening long positions here, including Bitcoin and some altcoins. I believe that earlier bombing actions in the U.S., combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are a continuous blow to early bulls. It's already enough to shake out positions, and now is the time to 'buy on dips.' If the market directly drops to $95,000, I can only say 'good night,' but this is the last battle for the bulls, and I am already positioned."
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin demand is showing signs of cooling after a period of accelerated growth, with prices nearing $112,000. Spot demand is still increasing, but the growth rate has slowed and is currently below historical trends. The purchasing volume of Bitcoin by whales and ETFs has halved. The demand from new investors is also declining. In the futures market, investors have recently chosen to take profits and are starting to establish new short positions.
If demand continues to weaken, Bitcoin may find support around $92,000, which corresponds to the on-chain actual cost price for traders and is a typical support zone during a bull market. If this support fails, the next support level may be around $81,000, close to the lower bound of the actual cost price for traders.
On-chain data analyst Murphy tweeted that although the ETH price has retraced nearly 20% from its highs, he still does not believe this is the best bottom-fishing opportunity. This is because the profit supply percentage data shows it is still at 55%, meaning that even at the current price, 55% of the circulating tokens are in profit. Historically, it has only been a more cost-effective bottom-fishing opportunity when a large majority of circulating tokens are in loss.
Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz tweeted that the next 72 hours are crucial, but if Iran does not retaliate seriously, the market will surge significantly by this weekend.
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