Macro & Hot Topics
1. On June 22, U.S. President Trump stated in a speech that the United States aims to destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities and prevent Iran's nuclear threats, asserting that Iran's facilities have been thoroughly destroyed. Iran must achieve peace now; if all parties do not achieve peace, future conflicts will be more intense. Iran will either welcome peace or fall into tragedy. If peace is not achieved in the future, other targets will be precisely struck.
2. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has signed SB 21 into law, making it the third state, after Arizona and New Hampshire, to establish a Bitcoin reserve. The fund is set up outside of the usual state treasury department and will be managed by Texas State Comptroller Glenn Hegar. Greg Abbott also signed HB 4488, which separates the Bitcoin reserve from other state government funds, protecting it from regular 'fund transfers' to general revenue by the state treasury. This bill also guarantees that the legality of the Bitcoin reserve remains valid even if no Bitcoin is purchased by next summer.
3. U.S. Department of Justice: Trump's military action against Iran is constitutionally authorized, and if the conflict continues, congressional approval may be needed. Senior officials from the DOJ stated that President Trump's airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities was carried out under the executive powers granted by Article II of the Constitution, and this decision was consulted with White House legal advisors and the DOJ. The official indicated that the President has broad military command authority in national security matters, while Article I of the Constitution grants Congress the power to declare war. Currently, airstrikes on three nuclear targets do not constitute a war action requiring congressional approval, but if the conflict extends, the government may need to seek congressional authorization. The DOJ noted that this action referenced authoritative memos previously issued by the legal advisory offices of past administrations (both parties). The White House believes it has secured support from senior members of both congressional chambers, establishing a solid legal basis. Attorney General Pam Bondi is expected to testify in Congress tomorrow, reaffirming the legality of the President's actions under Article II of the Constitution.
4. Top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel saying, 'Here I am quite actively opening long positions, including Bitcoin and some altcoins. I believe that today's airstrikes by the U.S., combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are a continuous blow to early bulls, enough to shake them out, and now is the time to 'buy the dip.' If the market directly gaps down to 95,000 USD, then we can only say 'good night,' but this is the last battle for the bulls, and I am already in position.'
This Week's Outlook
Tuesday, June 24, 2025
22:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the House of Representatives
Thursday, June 26, 2025
20:30 Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 21 (in ten thousand)
20:30 Final value of the U.S. first quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate
Friday, June 27, 2025
20:30 U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for May
22:00 Final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for June
Market Trends
1. Due to the impact of macro wartime conditions, BTC fell in the short term, touching around 98,000 USD before rebounding. In the past 24 hours, 656 million was liquidated, mainly from long positions, with the market experiencing a widespread decline; several smaller coins like YX have surged to attract market attention.
2. U.S. military weekend raids on three Iranian nuclear facilities saw Brent crude oil initially rise nearly 6% at the start of trading in Asia on Monday, while Dow futures fell by over a hundred points. Trump once again threatened to fire Powell, claiming that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to 1%-2%, the U.S. would save a trillion dollars in a year.
3. In the liquidation map for BTC/USDT, based on the current 100,713 USDT, if it drops two thousand points to around 98,713, the cumulative liquidation amount for long positions exceeds 233 million USD. If it rises two thousand points to around 102,713, the cumulative liquidation amount for short positions exceeds 568 million USD. The liquidation amount for shorts far exceeds that for longs, and it is recommended to reasonably control leverage ratios to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.
4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflows totaled 3 billion USD, outflows totaled 3.7 billion USD, resulting in a net outflow of 700 million USD.
5. In the past 24 hours, contracts trading for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, etc. showed a net outflow leading, or there may be trading opportunities.
