After the U.S. attack, the question arises: how could Iran respond? A plausible scenario would be an attack against U.S. military facilities in the Middle East.
💭In the current context, the Iranian government cannot afford not to respond: politically, it would amount to capitulation. However, Tehran clearly seeks to avoid a total confrontation with Washington, aware of its military disadvantage and the lack of a reliable regional air defense infrastructure.
The most likely scenario is an asymmetric response, similar to that employed after the assassination of General Soleimani in 2020: attacks against previously evacuated bases, minimizing casualties. This would allow for a "response" without triggering an open war.
🔻Where could Iran attack:
♦️The least risky option would be an attack against targets in Iraq and Syria, especially those that have already been partially evacuated.
♦️A less likely scenario would be an attack against U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf, given that the U.S. deliberately did not use them in its recent attack.
♦️An attack against a U.S. facility in Israel, especially considering that attacks against Israeli territory continue.
💭The proxy factor, although weakened, is still available to Iran.
🔻Potential actors:
♦️Ansarollah (Yemeni Houthis): with long-range missiles, they could attack Israel or U.S. regional allies such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. It is most likely they will escalate attacks against U.S. ships or vessels linked to Israel.
♦️Hezbollah: could attempt to attack targets within Israeli territory, although it is unlikely to do so. Options for sabotage or attacks are even less likely, as this Shiite group is recovering from clashes in southern Lebanon and does not want a new confrontation.
♦️Iraqi proxies: there are not many truly pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, and not all are directly subordinate to the Revolutionary Guard. Although bombings or attacks against U.S. infrastructure are likely, large-scale operations are not expected. Moreover, in such a scenario, they could become targets of future Israeli attacks, something that is undesirable in Iraq.
❗️The Iranian response is inevitable, but it will be carefully calculated: it will likely combine attacks against logistical points and cyber operations, accompanied by activity in the Strait of Hormuz (massive GPS signal interference is already being detected).
💭The parties repeat a known formula: a military conflict without war. After the retaliatory attacks, it is likely that we will move towards a new phase: limited de-escalation with public statements about "objectives achieved."
#BTCbelow100k #MarketPullback #IsraelIranConflict #IranAttackIsrael #TrustButVerify $BTC