Current technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) based on recent price data and news:
🔹 Technical landscape and context
After the strike carried out by the US and Israel against Iran, BTC experienced sharp fluctuations:
Dropped quickly below $103,000 (a decline of about 4% within minutes) then bounced back above $104,000 rapidly.
This movement differs from previous bounces, indicating high liquidity and immediate emotional reaction.
🔴 On the 4-hour interval, the chart shows:
Strong bounce from the support area between $103,000–$104,000
Potential formation of a descending triangle in continued hesitant trading between $102,000–$106,000.
📊 Immediate technical analysis (next hour)
- The chart shows long wicks at the upper ends, indicating temporary selling at high levels after a bounce.
- Current prices ($98,800–$103,022) show that BTC is testing the daily EMA 20/50 average at around $103,100 (coinetech.com).
- Short-term RSI indicators have reached the area close to oversold (around 25–30), indicating the potential for a near-term upward bounce.
👉 The most likely expectation during the coming hour: continued volatility and lack of a clear trend, with support at around $103,000 and a slight upward correction towards $104,000–$105,000 if the price holds above.
🎯 Trading opportunities and risks
Scalping opportunity: enter at $103,000–$103,200 with a target of $104,200–$104,800, with a stop at $102,800. This is an opportunity for short-term trading during the expected calm.
Dramatic downside scenario: if $102,800 is broken with strong momentum, it could lead to a rapid drop towards $100,000; hence it is advised to have a decisive stop below that point.
✅ Conclusion
The market is moving cautiously, with sharp fluctuations and quick reactions to political events.
The chart on the 4-hour interval indicates the formation of a descending triangle; closing above $106,000 may lead to an upward movement, while a downward break may trigger a new selling wave.
In the coming hour, we expect the price to hover around $103,000–$104,800 before taking a clearer direction.
🔴 Accurate technical signals (scalping + short trading)
🟩 Suggested entry points (Buy):
1. First entry: at $103,000 – $103,200
* Reason: Strong support, previous bounce from this area + RSI crossover from the oversold area
* Short-term target: $104,400 – $104,800
* Stop loss: $102,700
2. Second entry (breakout): in case of a clear and sustained break above $105,200
* Target: $106,800 then $108,000
* Stop loss: price returning below $104,700 after the break
🟥 Exit points (Take Profit):
* If entering from $103,000, start taking profits at $104,400
* From $105,200, take profits at $106,800 – $108,000
* It's better to exit before the end of the US sessions (where volatility increases).
⚠️ Important warnings:
* Avoid using high leverage (preferably ×3 or less) due to the risk of rapid price break.
* Breaking news coming from Iran or the White House during the New York session — any new escalation could abruptly reverse the trend.
* If the price breaks below the $102,500 barrier with a long red candle, exit immediately as the next target could be $100,000.
⏱️ Tools:
* RSI indicator on the 15-minute time frame — if it rises above 50 with a strong green candle, that is confirmation of a temporary upward movement.
* Volume — if it increases concomitantly with the breakout of $105K, the momentum is strong.
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