$BTC Dear friends, adding a larger update! Bear market shorting plan
June 22, weekend
This trade is a must-do speculative trade for me and may create a pattern for shorting the entire bear market.
First, the current background: BTC has already broken below the support of the lower boundary of the bull market distribution and is showing weak rebounds. Some may think that the candlestick at 101000 is the lower boundary of the bull market, but I want to tell you that this is incorrect. The real support for the current bull market distribution is around 104000. I won’t elaborate too much on this lower boundary; the simplest way to see where the most support is, is to identify where the major buy orders do not want prices to drop further, very simple.
The shorting range is 103500-105000, divided into two positions with light investment because the range is quite large.
There are several reasons for shorting in this position range:
1. Dense liquidity above: There is a large concentration of short liquidity accumulating above 103500, providing the best position for the main force to induce buying pressure.
2. Support becomes resistance: The area around 103500 was the support of the lower boundary of the bull market and has already broken down. This position may attract the main force to test sell orders. If there is significant selling pressure above, the final testing will lead to a decline as it represents the minimum resistance in the current market.
3. Bearish alignment of moving averages: The current 4-hour EMA moving averages have shifted from chaotic to a bearish alignment.
4. Dual trend line suppression: There are both a 4-hour downtrend line and a daily downtrend line suppressing the price above.
I do not wish to provide a stop-loss for this trade. If you want to do it, you need to make your own plan. There will be two unexpected situations, and I will clarify them one by one:
1. The main force may induce buying pressure at the markdown phase right after breaking the bull market support. This buying pressure may have a certain probability of breaking through all the upper supports, causing panic among shorts and then leading to a sell-off.
2. I may misjudge, and it could be that we are not about to enter a markdown phase, and there could even be another push to a new historical high, though this is a low probability event.
Therefore, this trade is a long-term position, representing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors, but the relative risk will also be very high. There is no clear stop-loss for this trade because I cannot determine where the main force will stop during this buying pressure or whether they will even induce buying pressure at all.
I have clarified all the pros and cons of this trade to you, and I will definitely engage in speculation. If you do, please make your trading plan based on your own situation.
June 22, weekend
This trade is a must-do speculative trade for me and may create a pattern for shorting the entire bear market.
First, the current background: BTC has already broken below the support of the lower boundary of the bull market distribution and is showing weak rebounds. Some may think that the candlestick at 101000 is the lower boundary of the bull market, but I want to tell you that this is incorrect. The real support for the current bull market distribution is around 104000. I won’t elaborate too much on this lower boundary; the simplest way to see where the most support is, is to identify where the major buy orders do not want prices to drop further, very simple.
The shorting range is 103500-105000, divided into two positions with light investment because the range is quite large.
There are several reasons for shorting in this position range:
1. Dense liquidity above: There is a large concentration of short liquidity accumulating above 103500, providing the best position for the main force to induce buying pressure.
2. Support becomes resistance: The area around 103500 was the support of the lower boundary of the bull market and has already broken down. This position may attract the main force to test sell orders. If there is significant selling pressure above, the final testing will lead to a decline as it represents the minimum resistance in the current market.
3. Bearish alignment of moving averages: The current 4-hour EMA moving averages have shifted from chaotic to a bearish alignment.
4. Dual trend line suppression: There are both a 4-hour downtrend line and a daily downtrend line suppressing the price above.
I do not wish to provide a stop-loss for this trade. If you want to do it, you need to make your own plan. There will be two unexpected situations, and I will clarify them one by one:
1. The main force may induce buying pressure at the markdown phase right after breaking the bull market support. This buying pressure may have a certain probability of breaking through all the upper supports, causing panic among shorts and then leading to a sell-off.
2. I may misjudge, and it could be that we are not about to enter a markdown phase, and there could even be another push to a new historical high, though this is a low probability event.
Therefore, this trade is a long-term position, representing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors, but the relative risk will also be very high. There is no clear stop-loss for this trade because I cannot determine where the main force will stop during this buying pressure or whether they will even induce buying pressure at all.
I have clarified all the pros and cons of this trade to you, and I will definitely engage in speculation. If you do, please make your trading plan based on your own situation.
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