📉 In the 3-day chart, BTCUSDT shows a decline of ‑1.73%, trading at $102,019, after moving between $103,830 and $100,789. The Bollinger Bands have tightened while MACD continues in bearish territory and RSI is crashing to ~38, signaling intensifying selling pressure.
🌍 Current context: macro and geopolitics at play
The conflict in the Middle East and the recent 'hawkish' pause from the Fed keep markets in wait mode. Bitcoin lost nearly 3% from $103,970, reaching as low as $101,000 before bouncing back above $102,800 thanks to opportunistic buying.
Bitfinex analysts warn that $102,000–$103,000 is the vital threshold; if it holds, the uptrend may persist, but if it breaks, we could feel pressure towards $100,000–$97,000.
🔍 Two paths: bounce or correction
Scenario 1: Technical bounce
If BTC manages to stay above $102,000 and buying volume returns, we could see a recovery towards $105,000–$106,000, driven by institutional flows and positive macro strength.
Scenario 2: Deep correction
If it decisively breaks the key support, we could fall to $100,000–$97,000, triggering a massive sell-off due to stop-loss and increasing macro risk.
🧠 Smart strategy for this moment
1. Define your entry zone and stop-loss between $102,000 and $103,000.
2. Monitor volume and macro context; a surge in buying suggests a bounce, while an increase in selling indicates a correction.
3. Keep small positions and adjust as it breaks or bounces.
4. Use technical analysis alongside macro context – Fed, Middle East, ETF flows – for informed decisions.
📈 Key summary: Bitcoin is at a vital crossroads. The level of $102,000 will decide whether the uptrend continues or a correction begins. In such moments, the disciplined and focused trader has the advantage.
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