At the end of July and the beginning of August this year, there may be another wave of significant declines. The reasons are as follows:
1. In July-August, One Big Beautiful Bill will be passed, the debt ceiling will be lifted, and the cash-strapped U.S. Treasury will need to issue more government bonds to replenish the TGA, leading to liquidity tightness, while Bitcoin is a liquidity-sensitive asset;
2. Recent increases in oil prices and tariffs will affect prices and will become apparent in July-August, and inflation data may perform poorly;
3. The issuance of government bonds will push up government bond yields, and inflation leading to a decline in interest rate expectations will also push up government bond yields, which may trigger panic related to government bonds.
