### Probability of ending the Israel-Iran war within 3 months
According to geopolitical analyses and AI forecasts:
- **Low probability of a quick diplomatic resolution** (below 5%). Iran and Israel have conflicting goals: Israel aims to dismantle the Iranian nuclear program, while Iran refuses to negotiate under military pressure.
- **60% chance of a prolonged low-intensity conflict** (proxy battles, cyberattacks, local clashes) according to AI models. This scenario assumes no military resolution, but avoidance of escalation to total war.
- **Key barriers**:
- Iran cannot afford a military defeat, but its ability to effectively strike Israel is limited.
- Israel is unable to independently destroy Iranian nuclear facilities (e.g., Fordo), which would require uncertain US assistance.
### Impact on the cryptocurrency market
#### Short-term (0–3 months)
- **High volatility and price drops** in response to the escalation of conflict:
- Bitcoin loses 5–10% of its value with each attack (e.g., drop to $102k in June.
- Altcoins (Ethereum, Solana) are more susceptible to declines (up to 8–10%).
- **Liquidations of leverage**: Within 24 hours of the escalation of conflict, long positions worth over $390 million were liquidated.
- **Main factor**: Investor fear of systemic risk and capital flight to the dollar (DXY ≈ 98.3 ).
#### Long-term (after 3 months)
- **Stabilization or price increase**, if the conflict does not escalate:
- Bitcoin may recover losses, especially with institutional demand (e.g., ETF inflows: $86 million despite the war).
- Historical data shows that BTC recovers value after initial panic (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war 2022).
- **Risk of further declines** with US involvement:
- US entry into the war could cause a BTC crash of 10–20%.
### Summary
- **Probability of ending the war within 3 months**: **low** (≤20%), with a dominant scenario of prolonged conflict.
- **Forecast for cryptocurrencies**:
- **Short-term**: Continuation of volatility and selling pressure during escalations.
- **Medium-term**: Potential return to an upward trend, as long as the conflict does not spread to other countries.
A key indicator will be the US stance – a decision on military involvement could determine the market direction.