On June 13, the cryptocurrency bloodbath ignited by the Middle East conflict once again revealed the harsh truth of the contract market: when news of Israel's airstrike on Iran triggered a 12% plunge in Bitcoin, over 1.16 billion USD in contracts vanished, and 250,000 investors' leveraged accounts were instantaneously wiped out. This was not a coincidence; on-chain data shows that the funding rate of Bitcoin had exceeded 0.05% for three consecutive days before the plunge (annualized over 18%), with a long-short position ratio as high as 3:1, resulting in extreme greed in market sentiment. But the truly fatal factor was that countless retail investors bet on one-sided trends with leverage exceeding 10 times, ultimately being consumed by the 'death spiral' of forced liquidations.
I. Fund management: The 'Noah's Ark' of survivors
In this disaster, the operations of the very few survivors can be considered textbook: an anonymous whale increased their position against the trend when Bitcoin fell below 55,000 USD, but kept their position within 3% of total assets and automatically adjusted leverage through the 'dynamic margin' system of the XBIT exchange, maintaining a net long position below 2.5 times. This strategy coincides with the 'withdrawalism' of legendary trader Wang Wang—when the account assets exceeded 4.5 million USD, Wang Wang withdrew 90% of the profits to a cold wallet, leaving only 300,000 to 500,000 USD for continued speculation, ultimately achieving millions in profits during the explosive rise of X tokens.
On-chain data corroborates this logic: Glassnode data shows that the number of retail addresses holding 0.01-1 BTC has decreased by 1.36%, while addresses of whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC have increased by 2.88%. MicroStrategy even bought 2,530 bitcoins during the plunge, demonstrating a long-termism of 'buying coins and abandoning debts' through practical actions. This confirms the core principle: contracts are not casino chips but tools for controllable risk.
II. Leverage traps: From the myth of getting rich to the nightmare of going to zero
In the crash on June 13, 92% of the liquidation orders came from long positions. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon stems from retail investors' misunderstanding of leverage. A certain Binance user opened a 10x long position with 58,000 USD, believing that 'if it drops, it will bounce back,' but lost 500,000 USD within an hour. This 'gambler's mentality' is the number one killer in the contract market—when leverage exceeds 3 times, the erosion of principal from price fluctuations grows exponentially, and leverage above 10 times is essentially a gamble that 'exchanges life for money.'
Exchange data reveals the truth: Bybt statistics show that the average survival period of traders using leverage above 10 times in the past 30 days was only 72 hours, while users with leverage below 3 times had a monthly win rate 47% higher. More critically, high-leverage positions trigger the exchange's 'chain liquidation mechanism'—when Bitcoin falls below the key support of 52,000 USD, 35,000 call options are automatically liquidated, triggering a 'cascade liquidation' for futures longs.
III. On-chain code: Using data to view the market's undercurrents
Real traders do not rely on intuition but capture opportunities from on-chain clues. On June 16, cryptocurrency ETFs saw inflows of 1.95 billion USD in a single day, setting a new high for the year, resonating with Bitcoin whales increasing their holdings by 3 billion USD, suggesting that institutions are positioning for a new round of increases. Meanwhile, the US Senate-approved (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) requires 100% dollar reserves, which will reshape the liquidity landscape of USDT and USDC, indirectly impacting the funding pool of the contract market.
The 'yin-yang path' of funding rates: When mainstream coin funding rates maintain between 0.01% and 0.03%, the market is in a healthy gaming state; however, if it exceeds 0.05% for several consecutive days, it indicates excessive long positioning, which may trigger a 'long kill long' market at any time. The 'funding rate simulator' of the XBIT exchange shows that Bitcoin's rate has dropped to 0.02%, while Ethereum's rate has even fallen to 0.015%, which may be a brief calm after the storm.
IV. Trend choices: The sea of stars for long traders
In the contract market, 'making money by shorting' is the biggest cognitive trap. During the period when Bitcoin rose from 10,000 USD to 100,000 USD in 2024, short sellers suffered an average loss rate of 92%, while the average return of 3x leveraged longs reached 27 times. The essence of this phenomenon is that cryptocurrencies are in a long-term 'deflation narrative'—the constant total supply of Bitcoin at 21 million units, combined with institutional accumulation (like MicroStrategy holding 450,000 units), forms a natural bullish foundation.
The 'arbitrage code' of altcoins: For altcoins with lower liquidity, the cost advantage of contracts is particularly significant. Taking a trade size of 1-2 million USD as an example, the closing cost of contracts is more than 0.5% lower than that of spot trading, and the funding rate can be almost negligible within 10 days of holding. However, be wary of the 'pin risk' during extreme market conditions—when altcoins broadly fell by 20% in December 2024, some contract funding rates even turned negative, forcing highly leveraged long positions to be liquidated before the rebound.
Conclusion: Taming the wildness of the market with rationality
In the world of cryptocurrency, contracts can be both angels and demons. They can turn 1,000 USD into 10 million USD, or cause millions in assets to fall to zero in an instant. Real traders view contracts as a 'microscope'—using 5% of their funds to observe market pulse, magnifying trend returns with 3x leverage, and using on-chain data to avoid fatal risks. As Buffett said: 'Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy,' but the premise is that your 'greed' must be built on absolute control of risk.
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