Solana (SOL) has once again become the center of interest in the crypto market. Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate the likelihood of the Solana spot ETF being approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by the end of 2025 at 90%.

In a report published on June 21, analysts pointed out that the question is no longer 'will it be approved?' but 'when will it be approved?'

Interest in crypto ETFs has significantly increased, especially with Bitcoin and Ethereum funds beginning to trade on Wall Street. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust product raised $70 billion in assets shortly after its launch, becoming the fastest-growing ETF in history. As the attitude towards crypto softens in Washington, the SEC has also begun reviewing altcoin ETF applications from large institutions such as Fidelity, Grayscale, Bitwise, and VanEck.

Solana is considered one of the strong candidates standing out in this competition. Key reasons for this include high trading volume, an active developer team, and the emergence of staking-supported ETF models.

If approved, Solana ETFs will not only track the SOL price but also offer investors the opportunity to earn extra income by staking the tokens. This could make the ETF very attractive for both traditional and crypto investors. While the SOL price is currently trading around $135, the renewed discussions of a $200 target have emerged with the acceleration of ETF developments. If approved, Solana is expected to exceed this level by the end of the year.

How Will Solana ETF Approval Affect the Price? Is a $200 Target Possible?

The approval of a spot ETF for Solana could be a significant turning point, not only in terms of regulation but also in terms of price dynamics. Upexi Strategy Director Brian Rudick states that allowing institutional investors direct access to Solana will create a sharp increase in demand for the price, similar to what was seen with Bitcoin.

Rudick stated, 'The fundamental reason behind Bitcoin doubling its value after the BlackRock application in mid-2023 was spot ETFs,' suggesting that a similar scenario could also apply to Solana.

Experts say that if large capital inflows occur with the ETF approval, the Solana price could easily reach the $200 level. It is emphasized that not only regulatory support but also a positive market atmosphere and macroeconomic developments will play an important role in this process.

Additionally, the approval of Solana futures by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seen by analysts as an indication of the asset's market maturity and regulatory-friendly stance. When these developments come together, the performance expectations for Solana post-ETF are further strengthened.

Short-Term Technical Outlook and Resistances

While Solana (SOL) carries strong potential in the long term due to expectations of spot ETF approval, its short-term technical outlook is still weak. Currently trading around $142, SOL is struggling to break through the critical resistance zone between $144.49 and $145.49.

This resistance zone overlaps with the descending trend line and the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA). The bearish engulfing candle pattern formed after the recent failed breakout attempt has led to the price being pulled back to the support level at $138.39, initiating a consolidation process.

The MACD indicator is still hovering in the negative zone, indicating that downward risks are ongoing in the short term. If Solana cannot surpass the $145 range, the risk of the price falling below $138.39 increases. In this case, the next supports are $135.74 and $132.57.

Highlights:

Bloomberg predicts a 90% probability that the Solana spot ETF will be approved by the end of 2025.

ETF applications are coming from major players such as Grayscale, Fidelity, and VanEck.

Staking-supported ETF models can offer investors extra returns.

A sustained breakout above $145.49 could strengthen bullish momentum.

Support levels to watch: $138.39 – $135.74 – $132.57

In conclusion: The approval of a spot ETF will be an important catalyst for Solana in the medium and long term. However, in the short term, a solid breakout above $145 should be awaited for a clear price direction; otherwise, the SOL price may come under downward pressure again.


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