Despite the conflict environment in the Middle East, Bitcoin has shown a rapid recovery, rising back to the $106,000 level. The decline in the hash rate and expectations regarding the Fed's interest policies continue to be on investors' radar.

Last Sunday, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $98,500, but with a sharp recovery on Monday, it reached $106,000. This level has been reached for the first time in the last 45 days. Tensions in the market eased after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a "complete ceasefire" between Israel and Iran. Now, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin can reach $110,000.

Concerns on the Mining Front

Recently, an 8% drop in Bitcoin's hash rate has been observed. Between Sunday and Thursday, the hash rate decreased from 943.6 million TH/s to 865.1 million TH/s. This decline raises questions about whether the tense environment in the Middle East is affecting mining operations.

Some analysts suggest that unregistered mining activities in Iran could lead to significant energy consumption, while the lack of transparent data regarding the actual mining capacity in the region increases speculation. However, experts point out that such fluctuations in the hash rate are not uncommon.

For example, analyst Daniel Batten notes that these declines may also be linked to temporary energy supply problems experienced in the US. Indeed, after severe storms affecting Texas and Oklahoma on April 22, the hash rate dropped by 27%. Such weather events often cause disruptions in local energy infrastructure, temporarily halting mining activities.

Derivative Markets Are Steady

Despite the fluctuations in Bitcoin prices, derivative markets generally exhibited a stable appearance. With the recent price movement, $193 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated. This figure corresponds to only 0.3% of total futures positions. The open position volume of $68 billion remained largely stable compared to the weekend.

The 4.4% drop experienced in 12 hours is considered a usual movement compared to the past 30-day data. However, the risk of a longer-term conflict centered in Iran may cause investors to act more cautiously.

Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts Are Increasing

Another noteworthy development in the market is the change in expectations regarding the Fed's interest policy. On Sunday, oil prices rose to $77, while they pulled back on Monday. On the same day, the S&P 500 index gained 1%. These developments strengthened investors' expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates by the end of the year.

According to CME Group's FedWatch data, the probability of remaining at the current 4.25% until November fell from 17.1% last week to 8.4% this week. On the other hand, during the same period, the likelihood of interest rates dropping to 3.75% or below increased from 38% to 53%.

It may still be early for expectations that Bitcoin will exceed $110,000 in the short term. However, gaining stability above $100,000 clearly shows that institutional investors' interest continues despite geopolitical uncertainties.


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