Bitcoin (BTC) is facing renewed selling pressure mid-week. The price, which has fallen below the $104,000 level, suggests that the downtrend may continue in light of short-term technical indicators.

At the time of preparation of the news, Bitcoin is trading around $103,848 and has lost more than 2% in value in the last 24 hours.

Although the trading volume reached $46.6 billion in the last 24 hours, increasing market volatility, price movements are still indecisive and struggling to find direction.

On the 2-hour charts, it is observed that BTC is stuck below a descending trend line and has failed to exceed the level of $104,657, which is the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA).

Additionally, the bearish engulfing candle formation that occurred around the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of $104,028 pulled the price down to the $103,000 range in a short time. The MACD indicator is strengthening sell signals; the increasing difference between the negative crossover and the signal line with the MACD line suggests that the bearish momentum may strengthen.

Important Technical Levels:

Resistance: $104,657 (EMA), $105,238 (Fib 0.5)

Support: $103,000, then $102,499 and $101,437

MACD: Bearish crossover confirmed

If Bitcoin closes below the $103,000 level and this is supported by high-volume transactions, a decline scenario towards $100,451 may come into play. Analysts point out that algorithmic selling may kick in below this level, and the price could drop to the $100,000 range in the short term.

Semler's Target of 105,000 Bitcoin Reflects Institutional Confidence

Despite the short-term cautious outlook on Bitcoin price, institutional investor interest continues to rise. US-based health technology company Semler Scientific announced its plan to increase its portfolio of 4,449 BTC to 105,000 BTC by 2027.

The company added renowned Bitcoin analyst Joe Burnett to its team to support this growth strategy. Despite the general crypto decline on Friday, Semler's shares gained 14%. This increase indicates that investor interest in long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategies is strengthening.

The company also aims to reach 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, and this strategy could serve as a model for other institutional investors.

Although the BTC price has not yet reacted strongly to this announcement, long-term demand signals may provide a solid foundation for the sustainability of prices above $100,000.

Bitcoin ATM Raid Sparks Regulatory Debate

A fraud case in Texas has reignited discussions regarding regulations on cryptocurrency ATMs.

A sheriff withdrawing $32,000 in cash from a Bitcoin ATM to cover a $25,000 loss has garnered widespread attention on social media.

This incident has raised the question in the crypto community, 'Are tighter regulations coming for Bitcoin ATMs?' In just 2024, Bitcoin ATM frauds caused a loss of $246 million. Although this situation does not stem from Bitcoin itself, it has heightened concerns that regulators may take measures to limit retail investors' access to crypto. Potential new rules could restrict ATM transactions, leading to a slowdown in trading volumes in the short term.

Macroeconomic Developments and the Fed's Interest Rate Policy

Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled that interest rate cuts could begin in July if there is weakness in the labor market.

Such a move is favorably viewed for risky assets like Bitcoin, but there is still no clear direction in the markets.

Summary:

Bitcoin is trading around $103,800, and the MACD is signaling a decline.

Semler Scientific's goal of 105,000 BTC increases institutional confidence.

The Bitcoin ATM raid in Texas has brought regulatory discussions back to the forefront.

The Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts in July is creating cautious optimism in the markets.

Technically, the critical support for BTC is $103,000. If this level is broken, the likelihood of a pullback to $101,437 and $100,451 increases.

During this period of rising volatility, it is important for investors to closely monitor support and resistance levels.

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