Limited Retaliation from Iran, Where are Crypto Markets Going?
We started the day with US attacks on Iran on Sunday, June 22. Throughout the day, there were consecutive official statements. As this writing was prepared, Iran was responding with a missile attack, and sirens had started ringing again in Israel. The connection between the recent drop in crypto markets and these geopolitical developments is being questioned. So has this drop ended, or could it deepen further?
Iran lost high-ranking commanders in the attacks 10 days ago. Then today, despite Israel targeting its nuclear facilities, Tehran prefers to keep its retaliations limited. This controlled approach is an important signal, especially for short-term crypto performance. If there is no direct attack on US bases in the continuation of developments, the markets can breathe a sigh of relief.
Former US President Trump recently stated, 'I cannot stop Israel; Iran may have nuclear weapons,' indicating that this process will continue until the uranium enrichment facilities are completely destroyed.
Signal from Israel to Stop and Possibility of Negotiation
The Israeli side announced that they have achieved their targets and that the attacks could be stopped. According to Al Jazeera, the process may move towards negotiations. Axios reported that Israel would attack again if Iran rebuilds its nuclear facilities. Iranian Foreign Minister Arakçı continues to send diplomatic messages. The signals from both parties indicating openness to negotiation present an optimistic scenario for the markets. If Iran does not attack US bases after giving its initial response, a new upward trend may begin in crypto assets.
For now, Israel is conducting operations against Iran's proxy forces in Lebanon. This shows that regional tension has not completely ended.
Analyst Opinions: Is This the Last Drop in Crypto?
Trader XO is pleased with the drop he warned about recently. He states that he closed his short position at $101,000 and that the major drop process is nearing its end. According to the analyst, in a negative scenario, the BTC price could drop to $95,000 to $97,000. However, the more likely scenario is a return to the $103,500 CME closing area. Trader XO expects more favorable market conditions by the end of the month.
Altcoin Sherpa states that BTC could slip below the $100,000 level. $100,378 stands out as a critical support point.
Different Strategies Among Corporate and Individual Investors
According to the analysis of The Kobeissi Letter, institutional investors have reduced their stock positions by 50% since November 2024. According to CFTC data, net positions of non-dealer investors in S&P 500 futures have fallen to the lowest level in the last 14 months. Institutional demand for stocks, which saw a brief increase in May, has entered a downward trend again. However, individual investors continue to remain more optimistic. This divergence should be closely monitored for the future of risk markets.
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