A Critical Week for Cryptocurrencies in Light of Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Data

As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate between the US and Iran, markets are focused on both political developments and economic data. Following the US's surprise attack on three nuclear facilities in Iran with B-2 bombers, cryptocurrencies experienced a sharp decline. The critical question now is: Will Iran retaliate by targeting US bases?

If Iran does not attack American bases in the region, tensions may decrease, and the parties may return to the negotiation table. Indeed, Israel stated that they are open to stopping operations after the strikes on nuclear facilities. However, in the opposite case, especially if the Strait of Hormuz is closed or there are attacks on US bases, global oil prices could skyrocket and trigger a new war.

This uncertainty is pushing investors to act cautiously. Markets have reached a point where fear is at its peak. If there are no new attacks, this fear may be replaced by recovery.

Trump's U-Turn: From Election Promises to War Tensions

Trump promised a less government spending, low inflation, and a US away from external conflicts during his election campaign. However, recent developments indicate a sharp deviation from these promises. The recent attack on Iran clearly shows that Trump has shifted to a tougher line in foreign policy after the elections. This policy change creates significant uncertainties in both global markets and the American economy: rising oil prices, war expenditures, and the risk of rising inflation.

Weekly Developments Calendar in the Markets

In addition to geopolitical developments, this week, important economic data and statements from Fed members will also be decisive for the crypto markets:

Monday, June 23

Possible attacks by Iran on US bases in the region are being monitored.

17:00 – Speech by Fed Member Bowman

20:10-21:30 – Statements from three different Fed officials

Tuesday-Wednesday, June 24-25

17:00 – Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee

17:00 – US CB Consumer Confidence (Expectation: 99, Previous: 98)

19:30 – Fed/Barr

21:00 – Fed/Collins

Thursday, June 27

15:30 – US GDP, Quarterly (Expectation/Previous: -0.2%)

15:45 and 16:00 – Fed/Barkin and Hammack statements

Friday, June 28

15:30 – US Core PCE (Expectation: 2.6% | Previous: 2.5%)

15:30 – General PCE (Expectation: 2.3% | Previous: 2.1%)

17:00 – Michigan Consumer Confidence (Expectation: 60.5)

What Are the Expectations in Crypto Markets?

While Iran stated that there was no significant damage after the attacks, Israel claimed that strategic objectives were achieved. These statements create the impression that diplomacy may be given a chance before tensions rise further. If Iran avoids targeting US bases and green lights the negotiation process, markets may price these developments positively.

But even if the likelihood is low, if Iran retaliates against the US, it would mean oil rising above $100, inflation accelerating, and global markets shaking. This scenario could put pressure on all risk assets, including crypto.

Therefore, a week full of uncertainty but also opportunities awaits crypto investors. Both geopolitical developments and Powell's statements, along with the PCE data to be announced on Friday, will determine the direction of the markets.


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