$BTC $BTC Is hovering near $103,500, down from its all-time high of $112,000 on May 22, 2025. It recently tested support around $102,400-$104,000, a critical zone that has held since early May.

Support: Key support lies at $102,000-$104,000, aligning with the 20-day EMA ($106,211) and 50-day EMA ($103,110). A break below $102,000 could expose the psychological $98,000 level.

Resistance: Immediate resistance is at $110,000, a level that has capped upward moves since late 2024. A breakout above could target $112,000-$120,000.

Consolidation Pattern: BTC is in a consolidation phase, forming a potential flag pattern after the April-May rally. This suggests a continuation of the uptrend if support holds.

Technical Indicators:

Moving Averages: The 50-day MA remains above the 200-day MA, confirming a bullish "golden cross" from last month, indicating long-term strength. However, the 50-day MA is flat, suggesting short-term indecision.

Fear & Greed Index: At 49 (neutral), down from 65 (greedy) last week, reflecting mixed sentiment due to geopolitical tensions (e.g., Israel-Iran conflict).

ETF Inflows: US-based Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of 12,700 BTC last week, signaling strong institutional demand. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust is nearing $70 billion AUM.

Exchange Reserves: Declining reserves (2.4M BTC vs. 3.1M a year ago) suggest accumulation, a bullish signal.

Bullish Case: If BTC holds above $102,400 and breaks $106,000, it could retest $110,000, potentially reaching $112,000-$120,000 by late June, driven by ETF inflows and easing geopolitical fears.

Bearish Case: A close below $102,000 could trigger a drop to $98,000-$100,000, especially if macro risks (e.g., interest rate hikes, Middle East tensions) intensify.