The CDD index, UTXO loss, and network growth of Bitcoin indicate that the market is in a neutral state, even though sentiment remains uncertain.
The CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) index of Bitcoin has decreased to 500K, down from a peak of over 1 million. This indicates that long-term investors remain cautious, even though BTC is approaching historical peaks.
The 30-day moving average of the CDD index confirms this stagnation, reflecting a clear shift from strong profits to a quieter accumulation state.
This supports the hypothesis that 'diamond' investors have not given up and are maintaining long-term positions.
Source: CryptoQuant
Meanwhile, the total number of UTXOs (unspent Bitcoin) in a loss state has increased by 42.81% to 12.23 million, while profitable UTXOs have slightly decreased by 1.2% to 305.15 million.
This indicates that a large portion of recent buyers entered the market at high prices and are currently facing losses. However, this pressure is primarily concentrated in the short-term investor group, while the overall market has not shown signs of significant imbalance.
Source: CryptoQuant
Is the buying pressure still present?
The Taker Buy/Sell ratio of BTC has slightly increased to 1.028, up 1.04% from before, indicating that investors are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, neither too pessimistic nor truly confident about the bullish trend.
This level, sitting just above the neutral line, reflects the caution of the majority of traders in the perpetual contract market. Although there are still positive signals, they are not enough to confirm that a true bull run is currently underway.
Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin price volatility remains high, but most fluctuations are only local and have not caused significant disruption. Volatility spikes have occurred frequently since late April but have not maintained a clear negative or positive trend.
This reflects that traders remain cautious and not in a panic. The market may be 'hot' in the short term but has not yet crossed the threshold of real warning.
Source: Santiment
What does the slowdown in Bitcoin's network growth mean for market demand?
The Network Growth index of Bitcoin has dropped sharply from over 500K to 76.5K, indicating a significant decline in new user activity. This may signal a diminishing natural demand for the network.
The spike in June appears to be due to a short-term effect that cannot be sustained long-term, reflecting the unsustainable volatility of newly participating investors.
Source: Santiment
Overall, factors such as the decrease in the number of long-term investors, the increase in hidden losses, light buying pressure, and the slowdown in network growth suggest that the market is in an 'uncertain' state.
Bitcoin has not signaled a definitive peak, but it also lacks the strength to surpass. When on-chain indicators such as Network Growth or Taker activity start to grow significantly, the market may enter a more positive phase; for now, BTC is still in a waiting phase for the next step in the larger trend.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-dang-dung-hay-tich-luy/
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