Dramatic LINK Surge: Warning or Opportunity?
Chainlink [LINK] recently saw a major on-chain shock. A crypto whale moved 1,999,999 LINK, worth nearly $25 million, to Binance. This is not a normal move. It usually signals a sell-off, not a long-term investment.
Naturally, this transaction was accompanied by a huge influx of orders. History shows that such spikes are often accompanied by large market movements.
As LINK is still in the recovery phase, the market is in a state of tension. Will this whale cause a sharp drop in price, or is it just a passing breeze?
What's the meaning behind the 8483% spike in shark money flow?
Large Holder Netflow vs Exchange Netflow exploded by 8483% last week. This is the strongest spike in recent history.
Usually, such jumps signal that big players are preparing to distribute, not hoard for the long term. When this ratio fluctuates too much, it often attracts attention. Additionally, if there is a big sell-off, LINK can reverse in a short-term downtrend very quickly.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Do these indicators warn of LINK weakness?
Chainlink's NVT Ratio is currently at 751, indicating that the market cap far exceeds the current on-chain transaction volume. This is a negative sign, often signaling that the price is overvalued relative to real activity.
History has often seen such gaps when expected demand pushes the price beyond what on-chain network activity can support. Without improvements in network utility, LINK could fall even lower.
Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score dropped to -0.78, indicating that the majority of coins are in a loss, which is often a signal of undervaluation or a bottoming out.
Source: Santiment
However, it is worth noting that when large money flows into the floor and shark sell-offs increase, these signals may no longer have clear meaning. The market is in a state of conflict between buy and sell signals.
Nearly 10 million LINKs rushed into the exchange: The decisive moment?
At the same time as the shark trade, the money flow into the LINK exchange skyrocketed by 771.44%. This led to a high possibility of a sell-off, as a large amount of LINK entering the exchange is usually a signal of wanting to sell rather than hoard.
Without strong enough buying power to absorb the inflow, LINK could face significant downside pressure. The market sentiment is currently quite cautious, making the $12.42 support level extremely important.
Source: CryptoQuant
Will $12.42 hold or is it about to break?
LINK is currently trading around $12.67, just shy of the $12.42 support level that has historically provided solid support for the price. However, be careful: nothing lasts forever.
The price remains in a downtrend, forming a descending channel, with resistance around $15.61. The narrowing of this range suggests the market is preparing for a turning point. A close below $12.42 could push the target to $10.05 or lower.
Source: TradingView
Could a Chainlink Crash Happen?
Chainlink’s metrics all reflect bearish sentiment: whale inflows are rising, utility is weakening, and key valuation signals are all red. While the MVRV Z-Score currently suggests undervaluation, the reality is that the sell-off is rising.
If LINK fails to break above the resistance or fails to rebound effectively, the downside risk remains intact. The market needs a real new demand or a significant breakout to change the trend.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/canh-bao-chainlink-2-dau-hieu-sap-xa-link/
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