Tesla Market Review and Cryptocurrency Potential
Tesla’s market cap ranges from $370 billion to $1.6 trillion, depending on the analyst’s perception. The numbers fluctuate based on how the company is viewed: as an electric carmaker, or as a tech giant pushing robotaxi and humanoid robots.
According to Bloomberg, Tesla’s stock price forecast for the next 12 months ranges from $115 to $500, a wider range than any of the S&P 500’s distributions. That’s where the debate comes from.
Robotaxi Potential and Elon Musk's Ambition
Elon Musk believes the future of autonomous transportation is all about full automation. Convergence in plans to launch a robotaxi service scheduled for June 22 in Austin, which is expected to operate a small fleet of Model Ys. However, Musk’s schedule has often been bumpy. He once called himself the “FSD crybaby” because of delays in developing full self-driving software.
Investors seem to be ignoring those failures. “The auto industry is a side business,” said Herbert Ong, who runs a Tesla YouTube channel with more than 100,000 subscribers. “If someone doesn’t believe Tesla will succeed in automation, they’re not fit to be an investor,” Musk admitted.
Self-Driving Software and Legal Issues
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) program is not yet fully autonomous. It still requires human supervision. The system uses cameras, rather than lidar or radar, which Musk says is scalable and cost-effective. Critics warn that this poses risks, especially in low-light or inclement weather. The system is currently under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) after several serious crashes.
Tesla's long-term plan is to develop a driverless car-hailing service, notably the Cybercab model project, which is still in concept form and has not yet generated real revenue.
Competition in the Electric Vehicle Market and the Threat from Competitors
As Musk pushes toward automation, Tesla’s core electric vehicle business is under pressure. By 2024, about 80% of revenue will come from vehicle sales. Meanwhile, the share of energy, battery storage, or charging stations remains small but growing. Chinese rival BYD is closing in, even surpassing Tesla in Europe in April, and is expected to dominate globally by the end of the year.
Tesla sold fewer than 1.8 million vehicles last year, less than a third of General Motors’ sales and less than half of Ford’s. Sales are expected to decline slightly this year to 1.7 million, as production disruptions, weak sales in the U.S. and EU, and political controversies hurt Tesla’s brand.
Profits at its electric vehicle division, once the industry leader, are expected to fall to 17%. While it still receives emissions credits, the new administration’s policies could reduce that.
Tesla is now worth more than 138 times its projected 2025 earnings, while GM and Ford are in the single digits. According to the analysis, only about $20 of Tesla’s $322 share price is based on actual earnings, with the remaining 95% being expectations and speculation.
Investors and Investment Strategies in Cryptocurrencies
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, RBC analyst Tom Narayan, and Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro all view Tesla as more of a venture capital investment than a stable business. Jonas estimates that the value of self-driving and robotaxi ideas could be as high as $250 per share, while the value of robots would be zero.
Gengaro has set the FSD and robotaxi projects at $311, and the Optimus project at $29, a humanoid robot that Musk promises can “perform dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks,” but is still in the demonstration phase via remote control. He believes that Optimus could one day generate as much as $10 million in revenue, 100 times Tesla’s current sales.
Meanwhile, Alphabet’s Waymo has been running more than 250,000 paid rides a week in four US cities using modified Jaguar electric vehicles. Its valuation is now around $45 billion, still far from Tesla’s.
Tesla remains the most valuable company in the “Magnificent Seven” group – including the tech giants and Elon Musk. Tesla’s P/E of over 138 is many times higher than Microsoft’s P/E of around 32, showing the stock’s high speculative potential.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/tesla-profits-or-astronomical-money-bubble/
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