The counterfeit season has been delayed for too long, and the core reason is only one - the Federal Reserve is still continuing its balance sheet reduction.

Although the pace of balance sheet reduction has slowed since March of this year, this tightening process has not ended and is expected to continue until early 2026. Against this backdrop, overall market liquidity remains tight, especially in the short-term financing market: available funds are decreasing, and short-term interest rates are continually rising.

Before liquidity improves significantly, funds are unlikely to flow in large amounts into high-risk assets, making it naturally difficult for altcoin markets to gain momentum.