It has been proven that since 2024, Bitcoin's resilience to geopolitical events has been increasing.

2024-01-12 The US and UK airstrike Houthi targets in Yemen, Bitcoin drops by 7.6%.

2024-04-13 Iran conducts its first large-scale drone/missile attack on Israel, Bitcoin drops by 8.4%.

2024-04-19 Israel retaliates with missile strikes on Isfahan, Iran, Bitcoin drops by 5.5%.

2025-06-13 Israel airstrikes Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, Iran launches a missile barrage, Bitcoin only drops by 2.9%.

This is a huge positive for $BTC long-term holders, essentially confirming that BTC's negative sentiment towards sudden geopolitical news is starting to dull, but this does not mean it has sufficient resistance to macro-negative factors.

The outlook for $ETH is not so optimistic, as $ETH has dropped deeper compared to $BTC, and the main driving force for recovery comes from the inflow of funds into ETH ETFs, which is primarily driven by upgrade expectations. In contrast to BTC's long-term narrative as a safe haven, if geopolitical turmoil persists, ETH is likely to remain in a downward trend compared to BTC in the medium term.

How long might the Israel-Iran situation last?

This week or even within a month, Israel will essentially maintain precise strikes on Iranian missile/nuclear facilities; Iran will respond with controlled retaliatory strikes using missiles and drones.

Then, within six months, both sides will essentially be in a cycle of fighting, negotiating, and dragging on, as both require domestic political gains but are unwilling to engage in total war, unless Iran crosses the nuclear threshold, leading Israel to undertake further large-scale destruction.

This means that the Israel-Iran conflict is likely to continue into Q4. More specifically, if the G7 meeting in mid-June cannot facilitate a ceasefire, the next window for a ceasefire will be at the G20 summit in Johannesburg on November 22.