Analysis of Ethereum's price situation: Downward risk and current market trend
Increased downward pressure due to inactive wallets becoming active again
According to the latest data from Glassnode, the "Liveliness" index of ETH has reached a record high of 0.69. This indicates that long-term investors are moving their assets, potentially to sell. Long-dormant wallets are starting to become active again, amidst a weak market and significantly reduced demand. Increased selling pressure is causing the Ethereum market to face continuous downward pressure. In the current market phase, many analysts predict that ETH could correct to around $2,185 or even hit the May low. Conversely, an increase in demand could create momentum for recovery and a positive shift.
The net outflow from ETF funds has made the short-term trend more unstable
On June 20, cryptocurrency ETF funds for ETH recorded a total net outflow of 11.3 million USD. Notably, ETHA saw withdrawals of over 19.7 million USD, while ETH and ETHV only recorded minor outflows of about 6.6 million USD and 1.8 million USD. Other ETF funds had no significant activity recorded. This reflects the cautious sentiment of short-term investment flows, putting strong downward pressure on the ETH market. If the net outflow trend continues, the likelihood of ETH continuing to struggle or sharply decline in the short term will become a reality.
Large liquidity in ETH liquidation orders
In the past 24 hours, Ethereum has recorded a total liquidation amount of up to 170 million USD, of which over 157 million USD is from long-term liquidations. Data from Santiment shows that the amount of ETH flowing into centralized exchanges is at a significant spike, far exceeding the outflow. This indicates negative sentiment and a prevailing selling trend. If buying pressure does not increase slightly, ETH may face stronger downward corrections in the short term.
ETH stalls below the $2.5K mark
Moving averages (EMA, SMA) in technical analysis all show a negative picture. Short-term indicators from 10 to 30 days affirm the selling trend, as the ETH price remains below the important resistance level of about $2,500. If the buyers are not strong enough to push the price above resistance in the next 30 days, the likelihood of ETH continuing to adjust to lower levels is very high. Only when ETH surpasses the resistance zone of $2,800–$2,850 within a month, the possibility of recovery to $3,000 will become truly feasible. However, currently, the market trend does not have enough strength to maintain an upward momentum.
Outlook and potential support levels in June
In the current context, ETH is likely to retest the $2,800–$2,900 zone if buying pressure begins to grow. If the macro conditions or global capital flows deteriorate, a drop to around $2,280 is entirely possible. The market needs a clearer consensus from investors to establish a clearer trend, especially amidst disputes between technical and fundamental factors. This analysis helps investors gain additional insights into the key supports that need to be monitored in the coming month.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/ai-dang-ban-eth-truoc-da-tang/
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