As of June 21, 2025, the total U.S. national debt has skyrocketed to approximately $37 trillion, a significant increase from last year, with the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 122%, reaching a post-war high. Recently, the Treasury needs to refinance $11 trillion within a year, and interest expenses are expected to surpass $1 trillion next year, exceeding the defense budget, making it the second-largest expenditure item. This has raised concerns in the market, especially if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts due to inflationary pressures, which could further drive up borrowing costs.

Factors affecting the situation are numerous. Trump's tax reform proposal could add another $3 trillion in debt, and the Senate's adjusted version is unlikely to reverse this trend. At the same time, conflicts in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures and making the debt burden heavier. Experts warn that without effective debt control measures, debt could reach 250% of GDP by 2055, triggering an economic crisis. There are also voices questioning whether the U.S. can alleviate pressure by printing money or raising the debt ceiling, but this may undermine the dollar's credibility.

Market sentiment is polarized; some investors are worried about a debt crisis, selling U.S. bonds, which leads to rising yields; others believe that the U.S. still retains the global reserve currency advantage, and the crisis may be avoidable. In the short term, U.S. bonds may fluctuate between high yields and high risks, and investors need to assess carefully. What are your views on the future direction of U.S. national debt? Feel free to leave comments for discussion! #Finance #Investment