Charles P. Kindleberger, a world-renowned economist and financial historian, not only predicted cycles of boom and bust. In his iconic book Manias, Panics, and Crashes (1978), he laid the groundwork for understanding how systems collapse when the global order loses its anchor of trust.
📚 According to Kindleberger, speculation cycles follow five phases:
1. Displacement
2. Boom
3. Euphoria
4. Crisis
5. Revulsion
Where are we today?
🔍 If we observe the current geopolitical dynamics — especially the Iran–Israel conflict — and cross it with the financial transformation driven by the crypto ecosystem, it seems that we are experiencing a convergence between phases 3 and 4. Trust in fiat currencies is collapsing, while assets like Bitcoin, the quintessential digital gold, are positioning themselves as a safe haven.
⚔️ Iran–Israel Conflict: A Energy or Financial War?
Beyond the nuclear argument, analysts like Michael Hudson or Pepe Escobar warn that this war hides a clash of economic models. Israel represents the interests of the old financial order centered on the dollar, while Iran — allied with Russia, China, and now BRICS+ — promotes dedollarization and the use of crypto assets as an alternative to the SWIFT system.
📌 What Kindleberger clearly warned:
"When the global financial center stops providing stability, global collapse occurs."
And the 'center' is being challenged.
📉 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Financial Transition to Crypto:
✅ Advantages:
Greater decentralization and monetary autonomy for sanctioned nations (Iran, Venezuela, etc.)
Viable alternative to safeguard value in times of crisis
Democratization of financial access through stablecoins and DeFi
Possible shielding against fund blockades by global actors
❌ Disadvantages:
High volatility amid war tensions
Risk of overspeculation and loss of liquidity (as Kindleberger predicted)
Regulatory challenges that could escalate with international conflicts
Possibility of new digital monopolies disguised as 'decentralization'
