Recently, those watching the market can feel it: this Bitcoin rebound feels like 'walking on cotton'—it started to wobble around 103,000, and in the last 7 days, over 5,500 bitcoins have flowed out of exchanges. Friends holding coins can’t sit still: 'Is this a buildup of strength or a run for the exit?' In fact, looking at the on-chain data reveals the truth hidden in three details.
🌊 Capital situation: 5,500 bitcoins are on a 'big move'; what are institutions plotting?
The balance of the exchange wallet address is like the market's 'blood pressure monitor'—this net outflow is equivalent to 15% of the 24-hour trading volume. More critically, several 'whale addresses' have appeared in the records of large transfers. Some community leaders have dug out an updated record of a compliant exchange's reserve proof, discovering that the cold wallet balance increased by 3,000 bitcoins within three days—this scene resembles the 'stockpiling' before the bear market of 2022. However, unlike before, this time the outflowing coins did not enter mainstream institutional wallets but rather flowed more towards decentralized exchanges and mixers. Those who understand know: this is capital preparing for 'extreme market conditions.'
📊 Technical analysis: 104,400 becomes the 'ceiling'; falling below 102,000 may trigger a cascading stop-loss.
Veteran traders are drawing this line: 104,400 dollars is a strong resistance level at the upper Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart, which has been tested three times last week and pushed back each time, with trading volume decreasing each time. What’s even more concerning is that the long-short ratio in the derivatives market has fallen from 1.2 to 0.85, and the funding rate for perpetual contracts on a certain platform has been negative for three consecutive days—when the bulls begin to disarm, the bears' 'sickle' is poised to strike. A quantitative strategist posted in the square saying, 'As long as the closing price falls below 102,000, the algorithmic trading system will automatically trigger a stop-loss order of 120 million dollars; at that time, whether the 100,000 mark can hold is truly uncertain.'
⚠️ Market sentiment: When 'bottom fishing' turns into 'knife catching', retail investors are falling into a cognitive trap.
These days, walking around Binance Square, the most eye-catching are various 'contrarian indicators': someone shared their experience of bottom fishing at 103,000 with the caption 'historical bottom, go in with eyes closed'; another person dug up an old post by an analyst predicting 100,000 as a 'hard bottom' in 2023 and treated it like scripture. But don't forget, the last time Bitcoin fluctuated around 100,000, Grayscale's premium rate was +15%, and now it is -8%—the enthusiasm for institutional buying has decreased by more than one order of magnitude. Ironically, a certain on-chain monitoring tool shows that the number of new addresses dropped by 40% in the past week, even the 'bottom-fishing gang' is too lazy to enter the market; how much momentum can this rebound have?
Finally, I want to say that the market's most ruthless aspect is not the crash, but the 'weak rebound' that gives you hope, only to strike hard when you let your guard down. The wave in 2024 that dropped from 120,000 to 80,000 started with a similar slow rebound. Rather than betting on whether 104,400 can break through, it’s better to ask yourself: if it truly falls to 100,000, can your position withstand it? After all, in the crypto market, 'survival mode' has always been more important than 'get rich mode'!