The cryptocurrency market process: A comparison between 2017 and now
The director of the crypto research platform Real Vision, Raoul Pal, has remarked that the current cryptocurrency cycle is very similar to that of 2017. According to Pal, Bitcoin maintained a steady upward trend for a year before exploding at the end of that year. Analysts predict that Bitcoin's movements will have a longer cyclical nature, reflected through the adjustment patterns of the macroeconomic cycle.
The market's ability to extend is predicted, as the economic cycle index remains below the 50 threshold. Pal stated that this indicates the growth process may take longer than before, as the global financial trend is still very volatile.
Image relating the cryptocurrency market of 2017 and now
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin began the year 2017 at a price of approximately $1,044, then surged to $2,187 in May. By the end of the year, the leading coin's price reached $14,156, an increase of 1,255% from the beginning of the year. Pal predicts this trend but notes that a weaker USD may slow the momentum of the cryptocurrency market, resulting in a longer accumulation process to reach its peak.
"With the USD weakening, the market is expected to extend into the second quarter of 2026," Pal noted. Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index has dropped 8.995 points, currently at 98.77 according to TradingView data. The inverse relationship between Bitcoin and DXY indicates that when the USD weakens, Bitcoin becomes a more attractive alternative, not just a speculative asset.
Thus, macro data remains the main reason for the delayed cryptocurrency cycles. Pal emphasized that factors such as interest rates and the USD have profoundly impacted market movements. Currently, he predicts the market may be in a growth phase earlier than expected, similar to the March 2020 phase, before a strong surge at the end of the year.
Looking at the bigger picture: The long-term trend of Bitcoin and supporting factors
In 2020, Bitcoin started at $7,174, then dropped 27% in March to $5,227. However, just 5 months later, the coin had recovered 129% to $11,990 and by the end of the year, reached $28,993, an increase of 304%. These events demonstrate the strong resilience of the cryptocurrency market amid global turmoil.
Pal emphasizes that to attract large investors, the market needs to continue to scale up. During his recent visit to the Middle East, he met with sovereign wealth funds, many of which are very positive about cryptocurrencies. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain, and Qatar all prioritize AI and blockchain in their economic development policies.
The governments of these countries also propose regulations to protect investors and promote the cryptocurrency sector to become a global financial center. In particular, mechanisms for building national infrastructure based on blockchain will reshape how governments operate in the future.
Meanwhile, many countries like Pakistan are actively building a legal framework to manage digital assets. These regulations aim to create a transparent legal environment and attract international investors, enhancing the competitiveness of that country's cryptocurrency center.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/raoul-pal-du-doan-chu-ky-tien-ma-hoa-2017-sap-lap-lai/
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