⚠️ BTC HISTORICALLY LOW VOLATILITY: CAUTION REQUIRED 🧭
The implied volatility (IV) level of Bitcoin has fallen to an all-time low in two years, with an IV Rank below 3% and an IV Percentile around 0.3%, according to CoinDesk.
Despite a price around $104,000, interest from retail investors is in free fall (Google Trends < 25 vs ≈ 40 in November), indicating a quiet but potentially dangerous market.
Very active strategies (IV trading, options) are suffering from this calm: according to some hedge funds, “straddle” and “iron condor” techniques are yielding little return under these conditions.
🎯 What this means for you today
🔓 Low volatility = explosive potential: when a breakout occurs, it can be sudden and powerful.
🎲 Recommended cautious strategies:
Avoid getting trapped in sideways configurations. Favor entries after clear breakouts with volume. Use RSI or MACD to validate the strength of the movement. Always keep part of your capital in reserve in case a violent movement occurs against your position.
⏳ Watch out for “volatility squeeze”: monitor unexpected spikes in IV that often signal a strong movement, either up or down.
🛠 Today's express strategy
Stay in observation mode: do not force any position.
If you are playing a breakout, target nearby resistances (weekly S/R chart).
Use long-dated call/put options to capture a movement without overspending.
Tighten your stop-losses to avoid sudden pullbacks.
Stay flexible in your position management. A false breakout or a "bull trap" is always possible — the market may seem calm, then trap the most impatient with a quick reversal. Prepare several action scenarios based on volume behavior.
💬 Are you ready to take advantage of the next explosive movement?
Bet on the breakout, or do you prefer to wait for confirmation? Let us know in the comments.