In recent months, as long as you follow the pace set by Guangan, it's not a dream to easily multiply returns several times. Precisely escaping the peak of ZK, shorting TRUMP and ZRO, every wave has been clean and decisive!
Don't rush; the real show is still to come—there's a high probability that the Federal Reserve will start to lower interest rates in September, Bitcoin has upgrades by the end of the year, with spot ETF + ETH staking ETF overlapping, and at that time, the entire cryptocurrency circle will boil again!
BTC
This weekend, pay close attention to the long-term futures liquidation map of BTC: Due to significant distortion in liquidity data over a month, the current liquidation map mainly reflects the capital concentration area at the time of futures opening, and the liquidity after closing cannot be accurately displayed, so it needs to be interpreted cautiously. If the Bitcoin price can stabilize at the lower edge of the $100,000 range, the potential liquidation target above may point to $114,700.
It is worth noting that due to the sudden changes in the Middle East situation, some high-level shorts have not been effectively liquidated and have encountered market reversals, leading to the real pressure in this area not being released, further complicating the current trend judgment.
Currently, BTC is undergoing a corrective consolidation after a drop, and on the hourly level, it has broken the previous low of 102614, showing a lower low, which is not a good sign. Pay attention to whether the support levels hold; resistance above is at 103825-104566-105491, while support below is at 103000-102341-101434. If the 4-hour level breaks 102339, look for target positions below at 101489-100699.
ETH
Ethereum dipped to a low of $2364, the second order point was not hit, but the 'eternal point' of $2403 was hit again. If you missed the morning ride, be patient and wait for the next wave of highs or pullback opportunities. The first order point last night was around $2542, currently needing a rebound of about $40 to break even. The strategy is the same as BTC: get out once you break even, don't turn short-term trades into long-term ones, if given the opportunity, run away, and do not linger. If you added to your position at the $2403 eternal point, then the average price is lower, only $2434, with a peak rebound at $2437 in the early morning, just enough to break even and exit!
Currently, ETH is at a daily support of $2380, and may rebound over the weekend. A long position around $2400 needs to observe market sentiment, with stop-loss in case of abnormalities. The decline is due to a reduction in spot CVD, while an increase in positions shows a bet on a rebound. The rise maintains a fluctuation, and a drop may test $2200.
In short, as long as position control is appropriate, there is still a chance to break even this weekend. Remember, the market is like a battlefield; bullets cannot be fired randomly, and your position is your survival chip—if you shoot all your bullets before the market even starts, you'll exit early. Don't let impulse ruin your ammunition; opportunities are always reserved for those who are prepared.
Altcoins
SOL
After dropping to 95 in early April, SOL experienced an oversold rebound, doubling in the short term before entering a distribution phase again, standard cyclical distribution structure, with a trend very similar to the previous round.
Now, if you want to gamble on a second probe, you can try to bottom fish in the 110-120 range with a light position, but remember—once it fails, be decisive with your stop loss. Especially if it falls below 100 again, it can basically be announced that SOL's round has ended early, and everyone can consider starting their 2025 travel mode early.
ANIME and BMT
Meme coins often end with a final sharp drop; recently, the new tactic is repeated probing before the final drop, exhausting short positions and attracting buyers, as seen with Anime and BMT's recent performance. In such cases, long positions should look for opportunities to close, and short positions should avoid chasing. It's recommended to short at high points with low leverage, as this is mostly the tail end of the market.
The cryptocurrency market has been the best market for a comeback through twists and turns for over a decade, but that doesn't mean it will always be this way, just like in the cryptocurrency market in 2013.
So we must persistently learn in this circle, especially after experiencing the eras of inscriptions, memes, and AI agents, the pace of the cryptocurrency market has clearly accelerated. Many so-called leading projects in the sector may not survive beyond 3 months. We must seize those projects with eternal characteristics and bravely say goodbye to old coins that are at risk of being eliminated.
Many fans ask me why altcoins aren't rising? Answer: The gameplay of the market has changed in this round of bull market.
This round of bull market has been bought up by institutions, everyone has been confident, believing that once institutions buy to a certain extent, the Bitcoin price will be high enough for funds to spill over into altcoins, but no one expected that on the eve of this critical point, the market's gameplay changed. Funds that couldn't keep up with Bitcoin began to chase altcoins, last night Circle surged directly by 34%, Coin surged by 16%, causing what should have belonged to altcoin bull markets to run into the stock market.
With various micro-strategies emerging like mushrooms after the rain, the long-tail funds in the market will soon be fixed. This makes the original altcoins in the cryptocurrency circle even more unclear. Now, any altcoin with a bit of promise is probably connecting with institutions in the traditional market. Early projects that link to coin stocks get the meat, while those who arrive late can only drink soup, and old coins that can't rise in the cryptocurrency market may ultimately face a gradual decline to zero as macro fluctuations unfold.
In short, this round of altcoins is really hard to play, possibly the final liquidation of the previous few rounds of altcoin bulls, and then the cryptocurrency market and stock market begin to enter a new era of stock-coin and coin-stock.
If altcoins can't rise, which altcoins are suitable for shorting?
Let's talk about the logic of shorting:
1. In the last 2 months, it has increased by 5-10 times.
2. The market cap is inflated, with pure air market caps of over several hundred million.
3. The main players show signs of offloading, currently still at a high level.
4. Newly launched coins without applications, continuing to decline.
Lastly, a breaking news - Trump is criticizing Powell again, constantly emphasizing that the Federal Reserve needs to lower interest rates quickly and reconsider whether Powell should be fired!
