When the US stock market coughs, the crypto market goes straight to ICU! Last night's free fall of ETH was a live teaching material!
Oh no! Brothers, last night that ETH was really thrilling! Just when it had painstakingly climbed to $2,550, before the seat could even get warm, it went "whoosh!" and dropped straight to $2,363! Nearly $200 vanished, evaporating 7% in an hour! This speed is faster than me抢红包! My inbox exploded with private messages asking what happened? Don’t rush, grab a little stool, and let me explain slowly!
First, the technicals have already shown their flaws! It’s just holding on!
That $2,550 level feels like it has a steel plate welded on it! In the past three days, it has tested it three times, brothers! Three times! Each time it was kicked back! What does this mean? It's like you desperately message your crush, asking "Are you there?" for three days, and they don’t respond at all! If you go again for the fourth time, what’s the result? Most likely, you’ll get a red exclamation mark! The bulls have exhausted all their strength in the first three attempts, and their confidence is in tatters!
What’s even worse? Before the crash, the price was pretending to flirt with a small new high, wasn’t it? But look at that RSI indicator (measuring strength) on the hourly chart! It’s actually drifting down! What kind of operation is this? It’s like you’re driving, and you’ve stepped on the gas so hard it’s in the tank, yet your speed is slowing down! Brother, what are you waiting for, a breakdown? This is called "divergence", clearly written in textbooks: it’s going to drop! It’s been a warning a hundred times! At that moment, my heart sank, feeling something bad was coming.
And the result? Bang! The price directly broke through the crucial psychological barrier of $2,500! The most shocking part is that the trading volume suddenly exploded! It’s like knocking down the first domino, instantly triggering countless preset stop-loss orders! Retail traders looked at it: "Oh no! It broke! Run!" That’s how the stampede happened. The technicals were buried deep enough, right? The main force never intended to pull it up with real money! Either they were fishing or they had already found a way out! A pullback? That was just a matter of time!
Second, the fatal blow comes from the US stock market! Precision demolition!
Trigger: Last night at 9 PM, the Americans released some awful retail data, it was worse than everyone thought! Goodness, the Dow Jones performed a "high-altitude dive" on the spot, losing over 400 points just like that!
Why does this crash ETH? Right now, the crypto market and the US stock market are as closely related as wearing the same pair of pants! The correlation is terrifyingly high (reportedly 90%)! Why? Because the big money buying ETH and Bitcoin often comes from the same institutions trading US stocks! When the US stock market crashes, what’s the first reaction of these big players? "Oh no! Risk is coming! Run!" They quickly sell off those "high-risk" assets (like our ETH) for cash or more stable assets to save themselves! With ETH being large and liquid, if they don’t dump it, who will?
On-chain evidence: When the crash happened, the on-chain data was truly visible! On Coinbase, someone dumped over 5,000 ETH in one go! Can this be done by retail investors? It's clearly the big institutions taking emergency precautions to control risk!
Here's the key point: The most incredible thing is that the moment ETH broke below $2,500 coincided precisely with the time when the US stock market crashed! It lined up perfectly! Isn't that enough to explain the problem? Last night, when the US stock market trembled, it sent the crypto market straight into the ICU!
What to do after the crash? Keep a close eye on this "main force nest"!
Now the price is hovering around 2400, brothers, this position is extremely critical! A life-and-death line! Why?
Historical memory: In January this year, ETH was hovering around 2380-2420, repeatedly rubbing and testing! It’s like a psychological defense line, and everyone remembers this spot.
On-chain hard evidence! What's even worse is that on-chain data has been dug out — in the range of 2380-2420, over 450,000 ETH has been accumulated! Brothers, 450,000! This is probably the cost zone for the early main players and big institutions! They don't want to lose money easily, right? If it really breaks through this level, then it could be bad...
So now, keep your eyes wide open! Focus on the "institutional stronghold" at 2380-2420! Whether it holds or breaks here will determine if ETH can catch its breath or if it has to continue to probe downwards!
Personal opinion:
I tend to swing trade in the range of 2400-2550 — try going long with light positions near the support zone, go short near 2600, and keep tight stop losses. Spot traders, don’t rush to catch the bottom; wait for a breakout above 2600 or a panic drop below 2380 before acting. Contract players remember: Set your three-key order properly, don’t get caught off guard by sudden spikes.
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