In the chess game of great power competition, allies are sometimes just temporary pawns.

Russian President Putin made a thought-provoking statement during a late-night meeting with global media leaders: 'Russia is willing to ensure Iran's benefits in the peaceful use of nuclear energy while alleviating Israel's security concerns.'

Before his words could settle, he quickly drew the line: 'The Russia-Iran treaty does not involve national defense, and Iran has never requested military assistance.'

Just three days ago, Russia urgently initiated the evacuation of citizens from Iran, suspended consular services at its embassy in Tehran, and hundreds of citizens fled in haste by land. Russian flights completely banned from Iranian airspace—these actions expose Moscow's true judgment more candidly than diplomatic language: the Middle East is a powder keg, ready to explode at any time.

1 Dual-track Strategy, Putin's 'Balancing Act'

Putin's remarks appear contradictory but are actually laden with clever calculations. On one hand, he promises to continue cooperation on the Bushehr nuclear power plant, emphasizing the 'high level of mutual trust' between Russia and Iran; on the other hand, he quickly hits the brakes, stating that the Russia-Iran treaty does not include military clauses and even reveals that Iran has previously rejected assistance from Russia for constructing air defense systems.

More crucially, he pointedly noted: 'Iran's underground nuclear facilities are intact.' This statement, while ostensibly a factual assertion, conveys a message to Israel—your airstrikes have not truly destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities, it's time to back off.

Russia simultaneously communicates secretly with the U.S. and Israel about 'solutions', attempting to package itself as a mediator in the conflict. The statements from the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Defense Committee, Zhuravlev, are even more straightforward: 'We will not send troops, what Iran needs is an air defense system, and Russia just happens to be able to sell it.'

This combination of 'verbal support + military sales hints + risk-cutting' can be regarded as classic Russian diplomacy.

2 Evacuation Operation: A Silent Warning

Before Putin's statement, Russia's actual actions had already revealed its true assessment. On June 15, the Russian embassy in Tehran suddenly suspended consular services, urgently evacuating 252 citizens and even assisting Belarusian and Tajik citizens in leaving the country.

Civil aviation flight bans extend to Iran, Israel, Jordan, and Iraq, effective until June 26. Such a large-scale evacuation is by no means an ordinary security alert—it indicates that Russia determines there is a 'risk of losing control' in the situation, which could even trigger military intervention by great powers.

Interestingly, the Iranian parliament hurriedly approved the previously delayed Russia-Iran strategic partnership treaty only three days after the outbreak of conflict. This 'last-minute rush' posture highlights the fragility of trust between the two sides.

3 Plastic Allies? The Subtle Rift in Russia-Iran Relations

Iran's ambassador to Russia, Jalali, posted on social media in Russian: 'The Iranian people will never forget those who stand with us now, and those who watch coldly from the sidelines.' Although unnamed, the implication is clearly directed at Russia.

Putin's response is even colder. When asked whether he would 'protect Iranian leader Khamenei', he only vaguely stated that he 'did not want to discuss possibilities', neither promising protection nor completely cutting off ties.

The contradictions in Russia-Iran relations have long been apparent:

Strategic Asymmetry: Russia needs to balance its relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while Iran remains wary of the 'backdoor' of Russian-made weapons.

Unequal Assistance: In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Iran provides drones, but Russia refuses to send troops for Iran.

Trust Asymmetry: Iran insists on independently developing missiles, showing little interest in Russia's proposal for joint development of air defense systems.

This partnership, characterized by 'surface warmth and internal alienation', proves to be fragile in the face of crisis.

4 The Mediation Game: A Smokescreen in Great Power Competition

When Putin loudly self-recommends the role of 'mediator', Trump at one point expresses an 'open attitude', but the underlying logic is filled with calculations: the U.S. hopes for Russian involvement to restrain Iran while alleviating the Biden administration's political pressure in the Middle East.

Putin's calculations are more realistic:

Oil Price Windfall: The conflict drives international oil prices up nearly 30%, allowing financially strained Russia to reap the benefits.

Shifting Focus: Western attention turns to the Middle East, while pressure on Russia in the Ukrainian battlefield significantly decreases.

Raising Its Profile: Returning to the international stage as a mediator, breaking the Western isolation.

The substantial obstacles to mediation are evident. French President Macron publicly opposes Putin's intervention, and many European countries harbor deep skepticism about Russia's mediation capabilities. Ironically, while Trump pretends to support mediation, he simultaneously calls on Iran to 'surrender unconditionally' on social media.

5 Surviving in the Cracks: A Realistic Fable of Small Nations' Fate

As Putin and Trump engage in a remote game, Iran's nuclear facilities are under real attack:

Natanz Nuclear Facility: Surface structures severely damaged, underground factory exposed to risks.

Isfahan Nuclear Facility: Uranium conversion plant attacked, four key buildings damaged.

Iranian President Raisi repeatedly declares that he 'does not seek nuclear weapons', calling for international respect for its rights. However, these statements seem weak and powerless in the face of great power struggles.

Meanwhile, Pakistan provides missiles to Iran, and Iran withdraws its request for peace talks with Qatar and Oman—regional camps are rapidly restructuring. Iran's shift towards expressing gratitude for China's diplomatic mediation exposes its helplessness in seeking 'multilateral bets.'

Personal Opinion from Xiao Chen:
Putin's evacuation operation and 'non-military alliance' statement have already torn away the romantic veil of the Russia-Iran strategic partnership. When Russian arms dealers eye Iran's wallet, and the Kremlin calculates oil price increases, the evacuation of Russian citizens from Tehran's streets is the most genuine footnote in this game—the great powers can withdraw at any time, but small countries can only gamble their national fortunes.

This crisis will eventually pass, but the world should remember: after Gaza, Iran once again proves that the security of small nations never depends on promises or treaties, but solely on deterrence within missile range.

I am Xiao Chen, follow me, supported by a top-tier team, serving only ambitious madmen.#普京停火
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