#美国国债

⚖️ I. Debt Scale and Maturity Pressure

Total exceeds $36 trillion

As of June 2025, the total U.S. national debt has reached $36.21 trillion, with debt to GDP ratio hitting 123%, a historic high.

Controversy over maturing debt scale: Reports claiming "$6 trillion maturing in June 2025" are due to statistical discrepancies. The actual figure, based on January 1, 2025, shows that the total maturity for the year is $10.8 trillion, slightly higher than the $10.6 trillion in 2024, but significantly above the levels before 2023.

Concentration of short-term debt pressure: Among the maturing debts that need to be repaid in 2025, nearly half (about $4.6 trillion) consists of short-term bonds issued during the pandemic with rates below 2%, while the current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has exceeded 5%, drastically increasing rollover costs.

In June, the U.S. has to repay $6 trillion in national debt; Trump has found a scapegoat.

Double Spending Watch

$6.6 trillion in U.S. Treasuries maturing in June? Social media spreading rumors, only $1 trillion is due for repayment in June.

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📊 II. Truth of Maturity Structure and Market Impact

Characteristics of Maturity Distribution

The maturing debt in 2025 is not concentrated in a single month (like June), but is evenly distributed throughout the year. More reasonable statistics show that approximately $9.2 trillion in maturing debt needs to be addressed for the year.

Rolling renewal pressure: Due to the maturity of low-interest old debt, the interest rates on newly issued bonds are generally in the 4%-5% range, resulting in additional annual interest expenses of several hundred billion dollars.

Market Supply and Demand Contradictions

Risk of Oversupply: High levels of maturing debt require large-scale issuance of new debt, which may exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance in the U.S. Treasury market.

Yield difficult to lower: Amid the Fed's balance sheet reduction, demand for Treasuries (especially from overseas investors) may weaken, combined with increased supply, medium to long-term U.S. Treasury yields may remain high.

💹 III. Potential Impacts on the Economy and Financial Markets

Fiscal Sustainability Crisis

Interest expenses as a proportion of federal finances have exceeded 15%, and if interest rates remain high, it may surpass 25% before 2030, squeezing necessary expenditures like Social Security and healthcare.

Increased Volatility in Financial Markets

Short-term interest-sensitive assets under pressure: The sustained high-yield environment continues to suppress tech stock valuations and increases corporate financing costs.