$BTC

Technical Pullback Pressure

Current BTC price (105,582 USDT) is slightly below the 20-day moving average (106,073 USDT), with short-term momentum slightly weak; MACD negative value (-376.91) indicates pullback pressure.

However, the midline of the Bollinger Bands (106,073 USDT) is close to the current price, and the trend has not yet turned bearish. 105,000 USDT remains a key support level.

Some analysts expect a slight pullback to 78,500 USDT in the short term, but if it holds above 105,000 USDT, a rebound is still possible.

Market Sentiment and Fund Flows

Institutional funds (such as Trump's media's 2.4 billion USDT Bitcoin holdings) and geopolitical risk aversion support BTC to stay above 105,000 USDT.

However, Glassnode warns of slowing retail demand; if it cannot break through 111,000 USDT, it may enter a "cooling phase."

📈 Mid-term Trend (6-18 months)

Bull Market Signal Confirmation

FilterW weekly indicator shows that the bull market has started, expecting at least 6 months of growth with an increase of 2-5 times.

The daily FilterD signal indicates that the "initial pullback of the bull market has ended," and an explosion may be imminent.

Technical Pattern Targets

Rising Expanding Wedge: If broken, target 170,000 USDT.

Golden Cross (50-day/200-day moving average): Historical patterns show a potential increase of 49%-125%, corresponding to 152,000-229,000 USDT.

Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern: After breaking the 113,000 USDT neckline, target 140,000 USDT.

🚀 Long-term Outlook (2025-2027)

2025 Forecast

Institutional investment drives the price range of 108,982-127,486 USDT, and may even challenge 132,000 USDT.

2026-2027 Forecast

2026: 163,053-193,650 USDT (global economic improvement + continued institutional entry).

2027: 234,429-280,455 USDT (acceleration of global cryptocurrency adoption).

🔍 Key Observation Points

Short-term Resistance: 111,000 USDT (if broken, it will start a new round of increases).

Short-term Support: 105,000 USDT (if lost, it may pull back to 78,500 USDT).

Market Catalysts: Institutional fund inflows, geopolitical situations, ETF dynamics, and technical pattern breakthroughs.

📌 Conclusion: There may be volatility in the short term, but the medium to long-term bull market structure remains intact, and buying on dips remains the mainstream strategy.**