While the Price of Bitcoin Stays Around $104,300, the Probability of Interest Rate Cuts in July and the Economic Situation

Traders operating in the Fed futures market assess the likelihood of the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in July at 14%. This rate indicates that expectations have declined with changes in economic conditions.

Despite geopolitical risks and uncertainties in the markets, the Bitcoin price remains stable at around $104,300. This reflects the cautious attitude of crypto investors.

Fed Board Member Christopher Waller noted that interest rate cuts could begin in July, emphasizing the importance of taking proactive steps to support economic growth before a significant deterioration in the labor market.

In the futures market, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in July remains at 14%; Bitcoin's ability to maintain stability against geopolitical risks supports this probability. Board Member Waller signaled such a monetary policy easing to preserve economic stability.

Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities and Their Effects on Crypto Markets

The latest signals from the Federal Reserve indicate a move towards a possible decrease in interest rates. Futures traders are pricing in a 14% likelihood of a rate cut in July; this represents a significant decline from 28% last month. This drop suggests that expectations for inflationary pressures have strengthened despite ongoing geopolitical issues and trade uncertainties. In this environment, Bitcoin holding around $104,300 reflects crypto's sensitivity to monetary policies. Historically, interest rate cuts increase liquidity flow to risky assets, while the Fed's cautious approach reflects an effort to balance price stability and growth.

Christopher Waller's Views on the Timing of Monetary Policy

Fed Open Market Committee member Christopher Waller clearly stated that interest rate cuts should begin as soon as possible. Speaking on CNBC's 'Squawk Box,' Waller said, 'We are in a position to take such a step in July,' emphasizing the importance of implementing preventive policies without waiting for a sharp deterioration in the labor market. Waller's views create differences in timing with more cautious members within the Fed and increase discussions regarding the size and timing of interest rate cuts within the central bank.

Economic Uncertainties and the Impact of Inflation on Fed Policies

While the Fed continues to keep interest rates in the range of 4.25% – 4.5%, uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tariffs require a cautious policy stance. The slowdown in inflation in recent months allows the Fed to consider the option of lowering interest rates. However, the central bank is trying to maintain a careful balance between price stability and maximum employment goals. Economic projections indicate that some policymakers expect two interest rate cuts within the year, while others argue that due to persistent inflation and concerns about slowing growth, a cut is unnecessary.

Market Reactions and Expert Opinions

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated that the Fed prefers to wait until uncertainties related to tariffs are clarified. Although there is a possibility of rising inflation in the later months of the year, he emphasized that overall projections show a tendency towards fiscal easing. This approach is also reflected in the crypto market; Bitcoin and Ethereum prices continue to remain relatively stable. The relationship between Fed policies and crypto asset values is critical, as monetary policy easings support the flow of liquidity towards risky assets, while tightenings can restrict these investments.

Geopolitical Risks and Market Dynamics

Missile exchanges between Israel and Iran have led to fluctuations in energy prices and investor sentiment, creating additional volatility in the markets. While Bitcoin moves around $104,300, this geopolitical tension creates a cautious market environment. The Fed's monetary policies are shaped with regard to the impacts of external shocks on inflation and growth. Both crypto and traditional market players continue to closely monitor possible policy changes and market reactions.

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