FED official Mary Daly stated that the US economy is currently in a "solid condition" and that monetary policy is progressing "in balance."

Daly stated that the impact of tariffs on inflation is not as significant as initially thought, while emphasizing that the ongoing decline in inflation is a positive development.

Daly said, "Economic indicators are heading toward a path of interest rate cuts," but added that unless there is a noticeable weakening in the labor market, a rate cut may be more appropriate in the fall.

A FED member indicated that caution should be exercised regarding the future trajectory of tariffs, stating, "The impact of potential new tariffs on inflation may not be as significant as expected." However, they also expressed uncertainty about the extent to which these measures will reflect on consumer prices.

The new economic projections announced by the FED this week predict a slowdown in growth and a slight increase in inflation. Nevertheless, FED officials expect that there will be an interest rate cut this year. This indicates that they think tariffs could create short-term pressure on prices, but that this effect will not be permanent.

On the other hand, divisions within the FED are noteworthy. Seven out of 19 officials argue that there should be no interest rate cuts this year, while eight members predict that there will be two interest rate cuts. This view aligns with investors' expectations of two 25 basis point interest rate cuts in September and December. Additionally, two officials expect one cut, while two others expect three cuts.


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