$BTC If US Treasury yields do not decrease, it is **unlikely that the US economy will collapse in the short term, but it faces significant recession risks** for the following reasons:

1. **Increased fiscal burden:** The government pays higher interest on massive debt, squeezing other expenditures or being forced to raise taxes/bond issuance, which is unsustainable.

2. **Suppressed economic vitality:** High borrowing costs for businesses and consumers inhibit investment, home buying, and consumption, dragging down economic growth.

3. **Potential financial risks:** A high interest rate environment may expose weak links in the financial system (such as certain banks or corporate debt risks), leading to localized turmoil.

**Conclusion:** While it may not collapse immediately, maintaining high interest rates over the long term is very likely to drag the US economy into a deep recession and exacerbate fiscal difficulties. The Federal Reserve needs to make a difficult balance between combating inflation and maintaining growth.